Who is favourite for Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Gil Vicente win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 33%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 16%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 41% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 10 · 2627.0

Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC prediction

Slight lean

Gil Vicente win 39%

Mon 2 Nov, 20:15 Lisbon

Published 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Gil VicentevsVitória SC

Slight lean

Gil Vicente win39%

Gil Vicente win: 39%
Draw: 33%
Vitória SC win: 28%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.26–1.06
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over70%; Under30%
2.5 goals: Over41%; Under59%
3.5 goals: Over21%; Under79%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Gil Vicente win 39%, from a +10 Elo gap (1503 vs 1493).
2Expected goals 1.26-1.06.
3Prediction 1–1 (16%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1503
+10
1493
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Gil Vicente
WWDLL
Avg xG 1.49-1.41
Vitória SC
LDLDL
Avg xG 1.31-1.18

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction15.6%
20012.3%
3109.9%
4218.3%
5017.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Gil Vicente versus Vitória SC
Gil Vicente goals	0	1	2	3
0	12%	8%	5%
1	10%	16%	7%	2%
2	8%	8%	4%
3	3%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Gil Vicente

Vitória SC

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Gil Vicente

WWDLL

21Sporting BragaAway · 19 Oct 2026
xG 1.52–1.35
10MoreirenseAway · 9 Oct 2026
xG 1.75–1.62
11CS MarítimoHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.20–0.86
13BenficaAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.11–2.90
01Académico Viseu FCHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.88–0.33

Vitória SC

LDLDL

02BenficaAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 0.43–2.42
11MoreirenseHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.07–0.52
12Académico Viseu FCAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 2.10–1.83
00Casa PiaHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 2.48–0.21
01Sporting BragaAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 0.47–0.93

How to read the Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC probabilities

Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC (Liga Portugal, 2 Nov 2026): Slight lean. Gil Vicente win 39%. Expected goals are 1.26–1.06. Prediction 1–1 (16%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Gil Vicente and Vitória SC are close on expected goals (1.26–1.06), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 16%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 41%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Gil Vicente win
Kick-off: Mon 2 Nov, 20:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC

Who is favourite for Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Gil Vicente win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 33%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 16%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 41% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Gil Vicente vs Vitória SC?: BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.