Who is favourite for FC Arouca vs CD Nacional?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Arouca win at 53%. Home 53%, draw 27%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for FC Arouca vs CD Nacional?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will FC Arouca vs CD Nacional go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in FC Arouca vs CD Nacional?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 10 · 2627.0

FC Arouca vs CD Nacional prediction

Slight lean

FC Arouca win 53%

Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

FC AroucavsCD Nacional

Slight lean

FC Arouca win53%

FC Arouca win: 53%
Draw: 27%
CD Nacional win: 20%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.83–1.09
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over81%; Under19%
2.5 goals: Over56%; Under44%
3.5 goals: Over34%; Under66%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: FC Arouca win 53%, from a +139 Elo gap (1510 vs 1371).
2Expected goals 1.83-1.09.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1510
+139
1371
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: FC Arouca
WDLDW
Avg xG 1.24-1.09
CD Nacional
LLLLL
Avg xG 1.16-1.93

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.8%
221Prediction9.8%
3209.0%
4107.8%
5007.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Arouca versus CD Nacional
FC Arouca goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	4%	3%
1	8%	13%	6%	2%
2	9%	10%	5%
3	6%	6%	3%
4	3%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

FC Arouca

CD Nacional

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

FC Arouca

WDLDW

10CF Estrela AmadoraHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 0.78–1.43
22Sporting CPAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 2.08–1.28
12Santa ClaraHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.72–1.16
00Estoril PraiaAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.07–0.86
21CS MarítimoHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.55–0.70

CD Nacional

LLLLL

23Rio AveAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.36–1.71
04FamalicãoHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.23–1.45
13FC AlvercaHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 2.20–1.16
02Sporting CPAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.08–3.00
23CF Estrela AmadoraHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.92–2.34

How to read the FC Arouca vs CD Nacional probabilities

FC Arouca vs CD Nacional (Liga Portugal, 1 Nov 2026): Slight lean. FC Arouca win 53%. Expected goals are 1.83–1.09. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

FC Arouca holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.83–1.09). That shows up as FC Arouca win at 53%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · FC Arouca win
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about FC Arouca vs CD Nacional

Who is favourite for FC Arouca vs CD Nacional?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Arouca win at 53%. Home 53%, draw 27%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for FC Arouca vs CD Nacional?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will FC Arouca vs CD Nacional go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in FC Arouca vs CD Nacional?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.