Who is favourite for FC Alverca vs FC Arouca?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is FC Alverca win at 35%. Home 35%, draw 33%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for FC Alverca vs FC Arouca?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 16%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will FC Alverca vs FC Arouca go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 42% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in FC Alverca vs FC Arouca?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 9 · 2026/27

FC Alverca vs FC Arouca prediction

Balanced

FC Alverca win 35%

Sat 24 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Published 18 Oct 2026, 09:29 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

FC AlvercavsFC Arouca

Balanced

FC Alverca win35%

FC Alverca win: 35%
Draw: 33%
FC Arouca win: 32%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.22–1.15
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over71%; Under29%
2.5 goals: Over42%; Under58%
3.5 goals: Over22%; Under78%

Why this forecast

1Balanced: FC Alverca win 35%, from a -46 Elo gap (1464 vs 1510).
2Expected goals 1.22-1.15.
3Prediction 1–1 (16%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1464
-46
1510
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: FC Alverca
WWWLD
Avg xG 1.80-1.32
FC Arouca
WDLDW
Avg xG 1.24-1.09

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction15.7%
20011.9%
3108.8%
4018.1%
5218.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Alverca versus FC Arouca
FC Alverca goals	0	1	2	3
0	12%	8%	6%	2%
1	9%	16%	8%	3%
2	7%	8%	5%
3	3%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:32 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

FC Alverca win

Fair

2.84

35% model

Listed

2.14

45% book

Draw

Fair

3.03

33% model

Listed

3.30

29% book

FC Arouca win

Fair

3.15

32% model

Listed

3.65

26% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.36
Listed: 1.95

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.73
Listed: 1.90

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.97
Listed: 1.74

BTTS no

Fair: 2.04
Listed: 2.01

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 09:29 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

FC Alverca

FC Arouca

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

FC Alverca

WWWLD

41FamalicãoAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 2.86–0.33
10Rio AveHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 3.30–0.29
31CD NacionalAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.16–2.20
12Sporting BragaHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.08–2.27
11Santa ClaraHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.61–1.49

FC Arouca

WDLDW

10CF Estrela AmadoraHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 0.78–1.43
22Sporting CPAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 2.08–1.28
12Santa ClaraHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.72–1.16
00Estoril PraiaAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.07–0.86
21CS MarítimoHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.55–0.70

How to read the FC Alverca vs FC Arouca probabilities

FC Alverca vs FC Arouca (Liga Portugal, 24 Oct 2026): Balanced. FC Alverca win 35%. Expected goals are 1.22–1.15. Prediction 1–1 (16%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

FC Alverca and FC Arouca are close on expected goals (1.22–1.15), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 16%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 42%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 18 Oct 2026, 09:29 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Balanced · FC Alverca win
Kick-off: Sat 24 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about FC Alverca vs FC Arouca

Who is favourite for FC Alverca vs FC Arouca?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is FC Alverca win at 35%. Home 35%, draw 33%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for FC Alverca vs FC Arouca?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 16%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will FC Alverca vs FC Arouca go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 42% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in FC Alverca vs FC Arouca?: BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.