Who is favourite for CS Marítimo vs Santa Clara?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Santa Clara win at 45%. Home 24%, draw 31%, away 45%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for CS Marítimo vs Santa Clara?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will CS Marítimo vs Santa Clara go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in CS Marítimo vs Santa Clara?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 10 · 2627.0

CS Marítimo vs Santa Clara prediction

Slight lean

Santa Clara win 45%

Sun 1 Nov, 18:00 Lisbon

Published 26 Oct 2026, 07:29 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

CS MarítimovsSanta Clara

Slight lean

Santa Clara win45%

CS Marítimo win: 24%
Draw: 31%
Santa Clara win: 45%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.02–1.46
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over73%; Under27%
2.5 goals: Over45%; Under55%
3.5 goals: Over24%; Under76%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Santa Clara win 45%, from a -106 Elo gap (1406 vs 1512).
2Expected goals 1.02-1.46.
3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1406
-106
1512
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: CS Marítimo
LDLLL
Avg xG 0.53-1.60
Santa Clara
WDWWD
Avg xG 1.22-0.52

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.9%
20010.7%
3019.8%
4129.1%
5028.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CS Marítimo versus Santa Clara
CS Marítimo goals	0	1	2	3
0	11%	10%	9%	4%
1	6%	15%	9%	4%
2	4%	6%	5%	2%
3		2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 26 Oct 2026, 07:29 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

CS Marítimo

Santa Clara

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CS Marítimo

LDLLL

12FC PortoHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 0.19–1.93
11Gil VicenteAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.86–1.20
13MoreirenseAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 0.76–2.00
03BenficaHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.12–1.31
12FC AroucaAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.70–1.55

Santa Clara

WDWWD

10Casa PiaAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 0.63–0.45
00Sporting BragaHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.04–0.50
21FC AroucaAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.16–0.72
40Rio AveHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.80–0.32
11FC AlvercaAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.49–0.61

How to read the CS Marítimo vs Santa Clara probabilities

CS Marítimo vs Santa Clara (Liga Portugal, 1 Nov 2026): Slight lean. Santa Clara win 45%. Expected goals are 1.02–1.46. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Santa Clara holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.02–1.46). That shows up as Santa Clara win at 45%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 45%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 26 Oct 2026, 07:29 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Santa Clara win
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about CS Marítimo vs Santa Clara

Who is favourite for CS Marítimo vs Santa Clara?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Santa Clara win at 45%. Home 24%, draw 31%, away 45%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for CS Marítimo vs Santa Clara?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will CS Marítimo vs Santa Clara go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in CS Marítimo vs Santa Clara?: BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.