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Liga Portugal · Round 9 · 2026/27

CF Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia prediction

Slight lean

CF Estrela Amadora win 45%

· Estádio José Gomes

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

CF Estrela AmadoravsCasa Pia
Slight lean

CF Estrela Amadora win45%

CF Estrela Amadora win
45%
Draw
32%
Casa Pia win
23%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 15%

Expected goals
1.42–0.98

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
43%
BTTS
50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over72%
Under28%
2.5 goals
Over43%
Under57%
3.5 goals
Over22%
Under78%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: CF Estrela Amadora win 45%, from a +0 Elo gap (1418 vs 1417).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.42-0.98.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4David Sousa suspended.

Match briefing

Elo

1418

+0

1417

Liga Portugal table
Out

CF Estrela AmadoraNone out

No listed absences

Casa Pia1 out

  • David SousaSuspended
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

CF Estrela Amadora

LLDWD

Avg xG 1.13-1.39

Casa Pia

LWLDL

Avg xG 1.05-1.42

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction15.1%
  2. 20011.6%
  3. 31010.4%
  4. 4209.2%
  5. 5219.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CF Estrela Amadora versus Casa Pia
CF Estrela Amadora goals012345
012%6%4%
110%15%6%2%
29%9%4%
34%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

CF Estrela Amadora win

Disagrees

CF Estrela Amadora win: model 45%, fair 2.23, listed 1.71 (56%)

Fair

2.23

45% model

Listed

1.71

56% book

Draw

Draw: model 32%, fair 3.14, listed 3.75 (25%)

Fair

3.14

32% model

Listed

3.75

25% book

Casa Pia win

Casa Pia win: model 23%, fair 4.29, listed 5.05 (19%)

Fair

4.29

23% model

Listed

5.05

19% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed CF Estrela Amadora win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 43%, fair 2.33, listed 2.03 (47%)

Fair
2.33
Listed
2.03

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 57%, fair 1.75, listed 1.83 (53%)

Fair
1.75
Listed
1.83

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 50%, fair 2.01, listed 1.92 (49%)

Fair
2.01
Listed
1.92

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 50%, fair 1.99, listed 1.86 (51%)

Fair
1.99
Listed
1.86

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

CF Estrela AmadoraNone out

No listed absences.

Casa Pia1 out

  • David SousaSuspendedred card suspension

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 09:29 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

CF Estrela Amadora

  1. 24 Léo Linck · G
  2. 5 Stefan Leković · D
  3. 21 Max Scholze · D
  4. 30 Luan Patrick · D
  5. 55 Rafa Soares · D
  6. 14 Lovro Zvonarek · M
  7. 39 Eddy Doué · M
  8. 78 Santiago Serra · M
  9. 99 Abraham Marcus · M
  10. 10 Ianis Stoica · F
  11. 37 Leandro Antonetti · F

Casa Pia

  1. 31 André Gomes · G
  2. 3 Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira · D
  3. 4 João Goulart · D
  4. 18 André Geraldes · D
  5. 43 David Sousa · D
  6. 75 Pedro Rosas · D
  7. 16 Selvi Clúa · M
  8. 80 Lawrence Ofori · M
  9. 9 Henrique Araújo · F
  10. 10 Rochinha · F
  11. 70 João Rêgo · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

CF Estrela Amadora

LLDWD
  • 01FC AroucaAway · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 1.43–0.78

  • 02Académico Viseu FCHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 0.84–2.54

  • 33Rio AveAway · 14 Sept 2026

    xG 1.87–1.23

  • 21Sporting BragaHome · 10 Sept 2026

    xG 0.57–0.61

  • 22FamalicãoHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.94–1.80

Casa Pia

LWLDL
  • 01Santa ClaraHome · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 0.45–0.63

  • 21Estoril PraiaAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 2.17–0.95

  • 14FC PortoHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.59–2.60

  • 00Vitória SCAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 0.21–2.48

  • 01MoreirenseHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.82–0.42

How to read the CF Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia probabilities

CF Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia (Liga Portugal, 24 Oct 2026): Slight lean. CF Estrela Amadora win 45%. Expected goals are 1.42–0.98. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

CF Estrela Amadora holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.42–0.98). That shows up as CF Estrela Amadora win at 45%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 09:29 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · CF Estrela Amadora win
Kick-off
Sat 24 Oct, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about CF Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia

Who is favourite for CF Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is CF Estrela Amadora win at 45%. Home 45%, draw 32%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for CF Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will CF Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in CF Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia?
BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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