Who is favourite for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Sporting CP win at 72%. Home 8%, draw 20%, away 72%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

0–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Casa Pia vs Sporting CP go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?

BTTS is 45%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 10 · 2627.0

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP prediction

Strong favourite

Sporting CP win 72%

Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Casa PiavsSporting CP

Strong favourite

Sporting CP win72%

Casa Pia win: 8%
Draw: 20%
Sporting CP win: 72%

Prediction: 0–2
Expected goals: 0.67–2.26
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 45%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over81%; Under19%
2.5 goals: Over56%; Under44%
3.5 goals: Over34%; Under66%

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: Sporting CP win 72%, from a -393 Elo gap (1417 vs 1810).
2Expected goals 0.67-2.26.
3Prediction 0–2 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1417
-393
1810
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Casa Pia
LWLDL
Avg xG 1.05-1.42
Sporting CP
WDDWW
Avg xG 1.80-0.91

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

102Prediction13.6%
20110.5%
30310.2%
4119.7%
5129.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Casa Pia versus Sporting CP
Casa Pia goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	10%	14%	10%	6%	3%
1	2%	10%	9%	7%	4%
2		3%	3%	2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Casa Pia

Sporting CP

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Casa Pia

LWLDL

01Santa ClaraHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 0.45–0.63
21Estoril PraiaAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 2.17–0.95
14FC PortoHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.59–2.60
00Vitória SCAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.21–2.48
01MoreirenseHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.82–0.42

Sporting CP

WDDWW

31Sporting BragaAway · 9 Oct 2026
xG 0.85–1.74
22FC AroucaHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.28–2.08
11FamalicãoAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.28–0.35
20CD NacionalHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 3.00–0.08
40Rio AveAway · 28 Aug 2026
xG 1.61–0.32

How to read the Casa Pia vs Sporting CP probabilities

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP (Liga Portugal, 1 Nov 2026): Strong favourite. Sporting CP win 72%. Expected goals are 0.67–2.26. Prediction 0–2 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Sporting CP is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.67–2.26). Sporting CP win is 72%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 0–2 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 45%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Strong favourite · Sporting CP win
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Casa Pia vs Sporting CP

Who is favourite for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Sporting CP win at 72%. Home 8%, draw 20%, away 72%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?: 0–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Casa Pia vs Sporting CP go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Casa Pia vs Sporting CP?: BTTS is 45%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.