Who is favourite for Benfica vs FC Alverca?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 81%. Home 81%, draw 14%, away 5%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Benfica vs FC Alverca?

3–0 is the published prediction at 12%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Benfica vs FC Alverca go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 67% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Benfica vs FC Alverca?

BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Liga Portugal · Round 10 · 2627.0

Benfica vs FC Alverca prediction

Strong favourite

Benfica win 81%

Mon 2 Nov, 20:15 Lisbon

Published 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

BenficavsFC Alverca

Strong favourite

Benfica win81%

Open game

Benfica win: 81%
Draw: 14%
FC Alverca win: 5%

Prediction: 3–0
Expected goals: 2.82–0.64
Over 2.5: 67%
BTTS: 46%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over87%; Under13%
2.5 goals: Over67%; Under33%
3.5 goals: Over45%; Under55%

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: Benfica win 81%, from a +336 Elo gap (1800 vs 1464).
2Expected goals 2.82-0.64.
3Prediction 3–0 (12%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 12%.
4Over 2.5 at 67%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1800
+336
1464
Liga Portugal table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Benfica
WLWWW
Avg xG 2.09-0.67
FC Alverca
WWWLD
Avg xG 1.80-1.32

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

120Modal12.5%
230Prediction11.7%
3408.3%
4218.0%
5107.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 3–0, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Benfica versus FC Alverca
Benfica goals	0	1	2
0	4%
1	8%	7%
2	12%	8%	3%
3	12%	8%	2%
4	8%	5%
5	5%	3%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Benfica

FC Alverca

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Benfica

WLWWW

20Vitória SCHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 2.42–0.43
13FC PortoAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.84–1.30
31Gil VicenteHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.90–1.11
40MoreirenseAway · 9 Sept 2026
xG 2.99–0.39
30CS MarítimoAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.31–0.12

FC Alverca

WWWLD

41FamalicãoAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 2.86–0.33
10Rio AveHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 3.30–0.29
31CD NacionalAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.16–2.20
12Sporting BragaHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.08–2.27
11Santa ClaraHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.61–1.49

How to read the Benfica vs FC Alverca probabilities

Benfica vs FC Alverca (Liga Portugal, 2 Nov 2026): Strong favourite. Benfica win 81%. Expected goals are 2.82–0.64. Prediction 3–0 (12%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Benfica is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.82–0.64). Benfica win is 81%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 3–0 at 12%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 2–0 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 67%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 46%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Strong favourite · Benfica win
Kick-off: Mon 2 Nov, 20:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Benfica vs FC Alverca

Who is favourite for Benfica vs FC Alverca?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Benfica win at 81%. Home 81%, draw 14%, away 5%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Benfica vs FC Alverca?: 3–0 is the published prediction at 12%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Benfica vs FC Alverca go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 67% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Benfica vs FC Alverca?: BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.