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La Liga · Round 6 · 2026/27

Levante UD vs Athletic Club prediction

Slight lean

Levante UD win 47%

· Ciudad de Valencia

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Levante UDvsAthletic Club
Slight lean

Levante UD win47%

Levante UD win
47%
Draw
25%
Athletic Club win
28%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.61–1.20

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
53%
BTTS
56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Levante UD win 47%, from a -63 Elo gap (1463 vs 1526).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.61-1.20.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Etta Eyong listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1463

-63

1526

La Liga table
Out

Levante UD1 out

  • Etta Eyong

Athletic Club4 out

  • Beñat Prados
  • Dani Vivian
  • Gorka Guruzeta
  • +1 more
XI
Last league XI
4-1-4-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Levante UD

DWDLL

Avg xG 1.54-1.43

Athletic Club

WWLLL

Avg xG 1.30-1.66

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.8%
  2. 2109.5%
  3. 321Prediction9.4%
  4. 4207.8%
  5. 5017.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Levante UD versus Athletic Club
Levante UD goals012345
06%7%4%
110%12%7%3%
28%9%6%2%
34%5%3%
42%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Levante UD win

Disagrees

Levante UD win: model 47%, fair 2.14, listed 3.09 (30%)

Fair

2.14

47% model

Listed

3.09

30% book

Draw

Draw: model 25%, fair 3.99, listed 3.37 (28%)

Fair

3.99

25% model

Listed

3.37

28% book

Athletic Club win

Athletic Club win: model 28%, fair 3.55, listed 2.21 (42%)

Fair

3.55

28% model

Listed

2.21

42% book

The model disagrees with the listed Levante UD win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 53%, fair 1.88, listed 1.95 (49%)

Fair
1.88
Listed
1.95

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 47%, fair 2.14, listed 1.90 (51%)

Fair
2.14
Listed
1.90

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 56%, fair 1.78, listed 1.70 (55%)

Fair
1.78
Listed
1.70

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 44%, fair 2.27, listed 2.05 (45%)

Fair
2.27
Listed
2.05

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Levante UD1 out

  • Etta EyongOutThigh Injury

Athletic Club4 out

  • Beñat PradosOutThigh Injury
  • Dani VivianOutGroin Injury
  • Gorka GuruzetaOutHamstring Injury
  • Peio CanalesOutMuscle Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Levante UD

4-1-4-1

  1. 13 Mathew Ryan · G
  2. 2 Aïssa Mandi · D
  3. 4 Adrián de la Fuente · D
  4. 23 Manuel Sánchez · D
  5. 29 Nacho Pérez · D
  6. 7 Roger Brugué · M
  7. 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti · M
  8. 18 Enzo Bardeli · M
  9. 20 Oriol Rey · M
  10. 24 Thiago Fernández · M
  11. 9 Iván Romero · F

Athletic Club

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Unai Simón · G
  2. 5 Yeray Álvarez · D
  3. 12 Jesús Areso · D
  4. 14 Aymeric Laporte · D
  5. 17 Yuri Berchiche · D
  6. 8 Oihan Sancet · M
  7. 10 Nico Williams · M
  8. 16 Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · M
  9. 23 Robert Navarro · M
  10. 24 Beñat Gerenabarrena · M
  11. 9 Iñaki Williams · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Levante UD

DWDLL
  • 00Málaga CFAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 0.81–1.46

  • 52Real BetisHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.76–1.92

  • 00OsasunaAway · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.31–0.67

  • 03EspanyolAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.28–1.55

  • 12Real BetisAway · 23 May 2026

    xG 2.53–1.57

Athletic Club

WWLLL
  • 30Atlético MadridHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.41–1.02

  • 20Celta VigoAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 2.78–0.75

  • 02FC BarcelonaAway · 27 Aug 2026

    xG 0.25–4.23

  • 13SevillaHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.25–0.41

  • 24Real MadridAway · 23 May 2026

    xG 0.81–1.90

How to read the Levante UD vs Athletic Club probabilities

Levante UD vs Athletic Club (La Liga, 16 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Levante UD win 47%. Expected goals are 1.61–1.20. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Levante UD holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.61–1.20). That shows up as Levante UD win at 47%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
9 Sept 2026, 20:09 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Levante UD win
Kick-off
Wed 16 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Levante UD vs Athletic Club

Who is favourite for Levante UD vs Athletic Club?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Levante UD win at 47%. Home 47%, draw 25%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Levante UD vs Athletic Club?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Levante UD vs Athletic Club go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Levante UD vs Athletic Club?
BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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