Who is favourite for Levante UD vs Athletic Club?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Levante UD win at 42%. Home 42%, draw 25%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Levante UD vs Athletic Club?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Levante UD vs Athletic Club go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Levante UD vs Athletic Club?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 6 · 2026/27

Levante UD vs Athletic Club prediction

Slight lean

Levante UD win 42%

Wed 16 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon · Ciudad de Valencia

Published 15 Sept 2026, 20:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Postponed

Postponed — forecast frozen at 15 Sept 2026, 20:10 UTC; new date Wed 21 Oct, 19:00 Lisbon.

Open the rescheduled Levante UD vs Athletic Club forecast

Levante UDvsAthletic Club

Slight lean

Levante UD win42%

Levante UD win: 42%
Draw: 25%
Athletic Club win: 32%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.49–1.26
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Levante UD win 42%, from a -63 Elo gap (1460 vs 1523).
2Expected goals 1.49-1.26.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Hugo Sotelo listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: 1460
-63
1523
La Liga table
Out: Levante UD1 out
Hugo Sotelo
Athletic Club1 out
Dani Vivian
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Levante UD
LDWDL
Avg xG 1.52-1.65
Athletic Club
DWWLL
Avg xG 1.62-1.45

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.0%
2109.4%
321Prediction8.9%
4018.0%
5127.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Levante UD versus Athletic Club
Levante UD goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	8%	5%	2%
1	9%	12%	8%	3%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%
3	4%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 16 Sept 2026, 02:07 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Levante UD win

Disagrees

Fair

2.36

42% model

Listed

3.43

28% book

Draw

Fair

3.93

25% model

Listed

3.52

27% book

Athletic Club win

Fair

3.11

32% model

Listed

2.09

45% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 17 hours before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Levante UD win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.93
Listed: 1.82

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.08
Listed: 2.02

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.80
Listed: 1.64

BTTS no

Fair: 2.25
Listed: 2.18

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Levante UD1 out

Hugo SoteloOutSprained Knee Injury

Athletic Club1 out · 1 doubtful

Dani VivianOutGroin Injury
Peio CanalesDoubtfulCalf Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 15 Sept 2026, 20:10 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Levante UD

Athletic Club

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Levante UD

LDWDL

24FC BarcelonaHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.46–2.63
00Málaga CFAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.81–1.46
52Real BetisHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.76–1.92
00OsasunaAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.31–0.67
03EspanyolAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.28–1.55

Athletic Club

DWWLL

11ElcheHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 2.42–0.84
30Atlético MadridHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.41–1.02
20Celta VigoAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 2.78–0.75
02FC BarcelonaAway · 27 Aug 2026
xG 0.25–4.23
13SevillaHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.25–0.41

How to read the Levante UD vs Athletic Club probabilities

Levante UD vs Athletic Club (La Liga, 16 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Levante UD win 42%. Expected goals are 1.49–1.26. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Levante UD and Athletic Club are close on expected goals (1.49–1.26), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 15 Sept 2026, 20:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Levante UD win
Kick-off: Wed 16 Sept, 20:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Levante UD vs Athletic Club

Who is favourite for Levante UD vs Athletic Club?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Levante UD win at 42%. Home 42%, draw 25%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Levante UD vs Athletic Club?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Levante UD vs Athletic Club go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Levante UD vs Athletic Club?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.