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La Liga · Round 6 · 2026/27

Levante UD vs Athletic Club prediction

Balanced

Levante UD win 39%

· Ciudad de Valencia

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Levante UDvsAthletic Club
Balanced

Levante UD win39%

Levante UD win
39%
Draw
27%
Athletic Club win
34%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 13%

Expected goals
1.37–1.26

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
49%
BTTS
54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over74%
Under26%
2.5 goals
Over49%
Under51%
3.5 goals
Over27%
Under73%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Levante UD win 39%, from a -66 Elo gap (1456 vs 1522).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.37-1.26.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Etta Eyong listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1456

-66

1522

La Liga table
Out

Levante UD2 out

  • Etta Eyong
  • Hugo Sotelo

Athletic Club1 out

  • Oihan Sancet
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Levante UD

DDLLD

Avg xG 1.28-2.28

Athletic Club

DDDDW

Avg xG 1.23-0.67

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction12.8%
  2. 2109.4%
  3. 3018.7%
  4. 4218.5%
  5. 5127.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Levante UD versus Athletic Club
Levante UD goals012345
08%9%6%2%
19%13%8%3%
27%9%5%2%
33%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Levante UD win

Disagrees

Levante UD win: model 39%, fair 2.57, listed 3.75 (26%)

Fair

2.57

39% model

Listed

3.75

26% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.71, listed 3.40 (29%)

Fair

3.71

27% model

Listed

3.40

29% book

Athletic Club win

Athletic Club win: model 34%, fair 2.93, listed 2.16 (45%)

Fair

2.93

34% model

Listed

2.16

45% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Levante UD win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 49%, fair 2.04, listed 1.94 (50%)

Fair
2.04
Listed
1.94

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.96, listed 1.95 (50%)

Fair
1.96
Listed
1.95

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 54%, fair 1.85, listed 1.75 (53%)

Fair
1.85
Listed
1.75

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 46%, fair 2.17, listed 2.00 (47%)

Fair
2.17
Listed
2.00

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Levante UD2 out

  • Etta EyongOutThigh Injury
  • Hugo SoteloOutSprained Knee Injury

Athletic Club1 out

  • Oihan SancetOutCalf Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Levante UD

  1. 13 Mathew Ryan · G
  2. 2 Aïssa Mandi · D
  3. 4 Adrián de la Fuente · D
  4. 23 Manuel Sánchez · D
  5. 29 Nacho Pérez · D
  6. 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti · M
  7. 18 Enzo Bardeli · M
  8. 20 Oriol Rey · M
  9. 7 Roger Brugué · F
  10. 9 Iván Romero · F
  11. 24 Thiago Fernández · F

Athletic Club

  1. 1 Unai Simón · G
  2. 4 Aitor Paredes · D
  3. 5 Yeray Álvarez · D
  4. 12 Jesús Areso · D
  5. 14 Aymeric Laporte · D
  6. 17 Yuri Berchiche · D
  7. 8 Oihan Sancet · M
  8. 16 Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · M
  9. 23 Robert Navarro · M
  10. 24 Beñat Gerenabarrena · M
  11. 9 Iñaki Williams · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Levante UD

DDLLD
  • 11Deportivo de A CoruñaAway · 16 Oct 2026

    xG 0.83–1.11

  • 33SevillaHome · 12 Oct 2026

    xG 1.82–2.20

  • 13VillarrealAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 0.46–4.02

  • 24FC BarcelonaHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 2.46–2.63

  • 00Málaga CFAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 0.81–1.46

Athletic Club

DDDDW
  • 00ValenciaAway · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 0.59–1.41

  • 00Rayo VallecanoAway · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 0.06–0.02

  • 00Deportivo AlavésHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.65–0.05

  • 11ElcheHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 2.42–0.84

  • 30Atlético MadridHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.41–1.02

How to read the Levante UD vs Athletic Club probabilities

Levante UD vs Athletic Club (La Liga, 21 Oct 2026): Balanced. Levante UD win 39%. Expected goals are 1.37–1.26. Prediction 1–1 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Levante UD and Athletic Club are close on expected goals (1.37–1.26), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 49%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Balanced · Levante UD win
Kick-off
Wed 21 Oct, 19:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Levante UD vs Athletic Club

Who is favourite for Levante UD vs Athletic Club?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Levante UD win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 27%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Levante UD vs Athletic Club?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Levante UD vs Athletic Club go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Levante UD vs Athletic Club?
BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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