Who is favourite for Udinese vs AS Roma?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is AS Roma win at 63%. Home 16%, draw 22%, away 63%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Udinese vs AS Roma?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Udinese vs AS Roma go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Udinese vs AS Roma?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 10 · 2627.0

Udinese vs AS Roma prediction

Clear lean

AS Roma win 63%

Sat 31 Oct, 17:00 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

UdinesevsAS Roma

Clear lean

AS Roma win63%

Udinese win: 16%
Draw: 22%
AS Roma win: 63%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 0.86–1.96
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over78%; Under22%
2.5 goals: Over54%; Under46%
3.5 goals: Over31%; Under69%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: AS Roma win 63%, from a -210 Elo gap (1466 vs 1676).
2Expected goals 0.86-1.96.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 11%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1466
-210
1676
Serie A table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Udinese
LLLLL
Avg xG 1.04-2.40
AS Roma
WDDWW
Avg xG 1.78-1.25

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

101Modal11.4%
20211.4%
31110.3%
412Prediction9.8%
5037.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Udinese versus AS Roma
Udinese goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	6%	11%	11%	7%	4%
1	5%	10%	10%	6%	3%
2	2%	4%	4%	3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Udinese

AS Roma

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Udinese

LLLLL

03LecceHome · 18 Oct 2026
xG 0.55–3.40
12TorinoAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 0.76–2.62
01CagliariHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 2.13–1.12
35InterAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–3.05
12LazioHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.85–1.83

AS Roma

WDDWW

20GenoaHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.33–0.47
00ComoAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.08–1.35
22InterHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.66–2.86
20TorinoAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.85–0.86
21AtalantaHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.97–0.70

How to read the Udinese vs AS Roma probabilities

Udinese vs AS Roma (Serie A, 31 Oct 2026): Clear lean. AS Roma win 63%. Expected goals are 0.86–1.96. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

AS Roma is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.86–1.96). AS Roma win is 63%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · AS Roma win
Kick-off: Sat 31 Oct, 17:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Udinese vs AS Roma

Who is favourite for Udinese vs AS Roma?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is AS Roma win at 63%. Home 16%, draw 22%, away 63%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Udinese vs AS Roma?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Udinese vs AS Roma go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Udinese vs AS Roma?: BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.