Who is favourite for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Sassuolo win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 26%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Sassuolo vs Fiorentina go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 10 · 2627.0

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction

Slight lean

Sassuolo win 44%

Mon 2 Nov, 17:30 Lisbon

Published 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

SassuolovsFiorentina

Slight lean

Sassuolo win44%

Sassuolo win: 44%
Draw: 26%
Fiorentina win: 30%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.53–1.24
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over77%; Under23%
2.5 goals: Over52%; Under48%
3.5 goals: Over30%; Under70%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Sassuolo win 44%, from a -37 Elo gap (1475 vs 1512).
2Expected goals 1.53-1.24.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1475
-37
1512
Serie A table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Sassuolo
LDLWD
Avg xG 1.46-1.64
Fiorentina
LLDWL
Avg xG 1.84-1.14

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.1%
2109.4%
321Prediction9.1%
4017.5%
5207.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Sassuolo versus Fiorentina
Sassuolo goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	7%	5%
1	9%	12%	7%	3%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%
3	4%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Sassuolo

Fiorentina

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Sassuolo

LDLWD

24FrosinoneAway · 16 Oct 2026
xG 2.02–2.55
11AC MilanHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.19–1.18
12MonzaAway · 18 Sept 2026
xG 1.47–1.51
32JuventusHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–1.10
22BolognaAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.62–1.88

Fiorentina

LLDWL

13ComoHome · 18 Oct 2026
xG 2.25–1.77
12GenoaAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 0.82–1.46
11SSC NapoliHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.14–1.40
42VeneziaAway · 11 Sept 2026
xG 3.31–0.49
12TorinoHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.67–0.58

How to read the Sassuolo vs Fiorentina probabilities

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina (Serie A, 2 Nov 2026): Slight lean. Sassuolo win 44%. Expected goals are 1.53–1.24. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Sassuolo holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.53–1.24). That shows up as Sassuolo win at 44%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Sassuolo win
Kick-off: Mon 2 Nov, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Sassuolo vs Fiorentina

Who is favourite for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Sassuolo win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 26%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Sassuolo vs Fiorentina go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.