Who is favourite for Lecce vs Genoa?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Lecce win at 40%. Home 40%, draw 27%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Lecce vs Genoa?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Lecce vs Genoa go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Lecce vs Genoa?

BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 10 · 2627.0

Lecce vs Genoa prediction

Slight lean

Lecce win 40%

Sun 1 Nov, 17:00 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

LeccevsGenoa

Slight lean

Lecce win40%

Lecce win: 40%
Draw: 27%
Genoa win: 34%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.37–1.25
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over74%; Under26%
2.5 goals: Over49%; Under51%
3.5 goals: Over27%; Under73%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Lecce win 40%, from a -18 Elo gap (1441 vs 1459).
2Expected goals 1.37-1.25.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1441
-18
1459
Serie A table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Lecce
WLLWL
Avg xG 1.33-1.76
Genoa
LWLDL
Avg xG 1.06-1.28

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.7%
2109.7%
3018.8%
421Prediction8.6%
5127.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Lecce versus Genoa
Lecce goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	9%	6%	2%
1	10%	13%	8%	3%
2	7%	9%	5%	2%
3	3%	4%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Lecce

Genoa

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Lecce

WLLWL

30UdineseAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 3.40–0.55
12BolognaHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.49–1.98
03AC MilanAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.21–2.19
32MonzaHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.07–2.47
01CagliariAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.50–1.61

Genoa

LWLDL

02AS RomaAway · 17 Oct 2026
xG 0.47–1.33
21FiorentinaHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.46–0.82
12ParmaAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.70–0.53
11FrosinoneHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.88–1.93
14ComoHome · 4 Sept 2026
xG 0.78–1.78

How to read the Lecce vs Genoa probabilities

Lecce vs Genoa (Serie A, 1 Nov 2026): Slight lean. Lecce win 40%. Expected goals are 1.37–1.25. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Lecce and Genoa are close on expected goals (1.37–1.25), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 49%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Lecce win
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov, 17:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Lecce vs Genoa

Who is favourite for Lecce vs Genoa?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Lecce win at 40%. Home 40%, draw 27%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Lecce vs Genoa?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Lecce vs Genoa go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Lecce vs Genoa?: BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.