Who is favourite for Como vs Venezia?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Como win at 79%. Home 79%, draw 13%, away 8%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Como vs Venezia?

3–1 is the published prediction at 8%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Como vs Venezia go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 70% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Como vs Venezia?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 10 · 2627.0

Como vs Venezia prediction

Strong favourite

Como win 79%

Sun 1 Nov, 11:30 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

ComovsVenezia

Strong favourite

Como win79%

Open game

Como win: 79%
Draw: 13%
Venezia win: 8%

Prediction: 3–1
Expected goals: 2.81–0.79
Over 2.5: 70%
BTTS: 51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over88%; Under12%
2.5 goals: Over70%; Under30%
3.5 goals: Over48%; Under52%

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: Como win 79%, from a +233 Elo gap (1607 vs 1374).
2Expected goals 2.81-0.79.
3Prediction 3–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 11%.
4Over 2.5 at 70%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1607
+233
1374
Serie A table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Como
WDLWW
Avg xG 2.00-1.49
Venezia
WLLLL
Avg xG 1.61-2.28

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

120Modal10.8%
23010.1%
3218.5%
431Prediction8.0%
5107.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 3–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Como versus Venezia
Como goals	0	1	2
0	3%	2%
1	8%	6%	2%
2	11%	9%	3%
3	10%	8%	3%
4	7%	6%	2%
5	4%	3%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Como

Venezia

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Como

WDLWW

31FiorentinaAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 1.77–2.25
00AS RomaHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.35–1.08
02FrosinoneAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 2.12–2.18
21ParmaHome · 14 Sept 2026
xG 2.98–1.15
41GenoaAway · 4 Sept 2026
xG 1.78–0.78

Venezia

WLLLL

10SSC NapoliHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 0.98–2.36
13AtalantaAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 2.48–2.19
02LazioHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.92–1.64
24FiorentinaHome · 11 Sept 2026
xG 0.49–3.31
23FrosinoneAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 2.17–1.90

How to read the Como vs Venezia probabilities

Como vs Venezia (Serie A, 1 Nov 2026): Strong favourite. Como win 79%. Expected goals are 2.81–0.79. Prediction 3–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Como is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.81–0.79). Como win is 79%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 3–1 at 8%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 2–0 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 70%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Strong favourite · Como win
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov, 11:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Como vs Venezia

Who is favourite for Como vs Venezia?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Como win at 79%. Home 79%, draw 13%, away 8%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Como vs Venezia?: 3–1 is the published prediction at 8%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Como vs Venezia go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 70% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Como vs Venezia?: BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.