Who is favourite for Bologna vs Monza?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Bologna win at 45%. Home 45%, draw 27%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Bologna vs Monza?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Bologna vs Monza go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Bologna vs Monza?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 10 · 2627.0

Bologna vs Monza prediction

Slight lean

Bologna win 45%

Sat 31 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

BolognavsMonza

Slight lean

Bologna win45%

Bologna win: 45%
Draw: 27%
Monza win: 28%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.42–1.05
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over71%; Under29%
2.5 goals: Over45%; Under55%
3.5 goals: Over24%; Under76%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Bologna win 45%, from a +172 Elo gap (1552 vs 1380).
2Expected goals 1.42-1.05.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1552
+172
1380
Serie A table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Bologna
LWDLD
Avg xG 1.21-1.72
Monza
WLWLD
Avg xG 1.90-1.50

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.9%
21011.7%
321Prediction9.0%
4008.7%
5018.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Bologna versus Monza
Bologna goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	9%	5%
1	12%	13%	7%	2%
2	8%	9%	5%
3	4%	4%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Bologna

Monza

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Bologna

LWDLD

13InterHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.00–3.16
21LecceAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.98–1.49
11TorinoHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–1.14
01SSC NapoliAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.29–1.19
22SassuoloHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.88–1.62

Monza

WLWLD

40CagliariHome · 19 Oct 2026
xG 2.06–2.37
13LazioAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.76–1.84
21SassuoloHome · 18 Sept 2026
xG 1.51–1.47
23LecceAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.47–1.07
11ParmaAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.72–0.73

How to read the Bologna vs Monza probabilities

Bologna vs Monza (Serie A, 31 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Bologna win 45%. Expected goals are 1.42–1.05. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Bologna holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.42–1.05). That shows up as Bologna win at 45%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Bologna win
Kick-off: Sat 31 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Bologna vs Monza

Who is favourite for Bologna vs Monza?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Bologna win at 45%. Home 45%, draw 27%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Bologna vs Monza?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Bologna vs Monza go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Bologna vs Monza?: BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.