Who is favourite for Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Olympique de Marseille win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 23%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 62% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse?

BTTS is 63%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 9 · 2627.0

Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse prediction

Slight lean

Olympique de Marseille win 49%

Sun 1 Nov, 19:45 Lisbon

Published 26 Oct 2026, 07:29 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Olympique de MarseillevsToulouse

Slight lean

Olympique de Marseille win49%

Open gameBoth likely

Olympique de Marseille win: 49%
Draw: 23%
Toulouse win: 27%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.87–1.35
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 63%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over83%; Under17%
2.5 goals: Over62%; Under38%
3.5 goals: Over40%; Under60%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Olympique de Marseille win 49%, from a +77 Elo gap (1586 vs 1509).
2Expected goals 1.87-1.35.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%.
4Over 2.5 at 62%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1586
+77
1509
Ligue 1 table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Olympique de Marseille
WWLLL
Avg xG 1.72-2.52
Toulouse
WDWDL
Avg xG 2.06-1.32

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal10.3%
221Prediction9.4%
3107.2%
4207.0%
5126.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Olympique de Marseille versus Toulouse
Olympique de Marseille goals	0	1	2	3
0	4%	5%	4%
1	7%	10%	7%	3%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%
3	4%	6%	4%
4	2%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 08:17 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Olympique de Marseille win

Fair

2.02

49% model

Listed

1.87

52% book

Draw

Fair

4.33

23% model

Listed

4.10

24% book

Toulouse win

Fair

3.64

27% model

Listed

4.10

24% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 9 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 26 Oct 2026, 07:29 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Olympique de Marseille

Toulouse

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Olympique de Marseille

WWLLL

52AngersAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 2.74–2.02
20TroyesAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.30–1.06
12Paris Saint-GermainHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.80–4.33
01Stade RennaisAway · 11 Sept 2026
xG 1.34–1.88
23Paris FCHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.42–3.29

Toulouse

WDWDL

30Le MansAway · 16 Oct 2026
xG 1.81–0.95
22AS MonacoAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.43–1.17
32Le HavreHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.95–2.34
22LorientAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.63–0.93
01LilleHome · 3 Sept 2026
xG 3.46–1.21

How to read the Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse probabilities

Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse (Ligue 1, 1 Nov 2026): Slight lean. Olympique de Marseille win 49%. Expected goals are 1.87–1.35. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Olympique de Marseille holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.87–1.35). That shows up as Olympique de Marseille win at 49%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 62%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 63%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 26 Oct 2026, 07:29 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Olympique de Marseille win
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse

Who is favourite for Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Olympique de Marseille win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 23%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 62% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse?: BTTS is 63%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.