Who is favourite for Sevilla vs Osasuna?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Sevilla win at 38%. Home 38%, draw 27%, away 35%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Sevilla vs Osasuna?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Sevilla vs Osasuna go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 10 · 2026/27

Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction

Balanced

Sevilla win 38%

Mon 26 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon

Published 20 Oct 2026, 07:12 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

SevillavsOsasuna

Balanced

Sevilla win38%

Sevilla win: 38%
Draw: 27%
Osasuna win: 35%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.39–1.33
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over76%; Under24%
2.5 goals: Over51%; Under49%
3.5 goals: Over29%; Under71%

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Sevilla win 38%, from a +16 Elo gap (1483 vs 1468).
2Expected goals 1.39-1.33.
3Prediction 1–1 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1483
+16
1468
La Liga table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Sevilla
DLWWD
Avg xG 0.97-1.31
Osasuna
WLDLL
Avg xG 1.44-1.95

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction12.6%
2108.8%
3218.5%
4018.4%
5128.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Sevilla versus Osasuna
Sevilla goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	8%	6%	3%
1	9%	13%	8%	4%
2	6%	8%	6%	2%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Sevilla win

Fair

2.62

38% model

Listed

1.94

49% book

Draw

Fair

3.77

27% model

Listed

3.40

28% book

Osasuna win

Disagrees

Fair

2.83

35% model

Listed

4.10

23% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 8 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Osasuna win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 20 Oct 2026, 07:12 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Sevilla

Osasuna

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Sevilla

DLWWD

33Levante UDAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 2.20–1.82
13FC BarcelonaHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.45–3.26
10Deportivo de A CoruñaAway · 16 Sept 2026
xG 0.73–0.14
10ValenciaHome · 11 Sept 2026
xG 0.93–0.10
11EspanyolAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.53–1.23

Osasuna

WLDLL

20Real Racing ClubHome · 18 Oct 2026
xG 3.38–0.28
25Real BetisAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.94–2.89
11Rayo VallecanoHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.55–1.19
04Atlético MadridAway · 16 Sept 2026
xG 0.48–3.99
02EspanyolHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.87–1.42

How to read the Sevilla vs Osasuna probabilities

Sevilla vs Osasuna (La Liga, 26 Oct 2026): Balanced. Sevilla win 38%. Expected goals are 1.39–1.33. Prediction 1–1 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Sevilla and Osasuna are close on expected goals (1.39–1.33), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 20 Oct 2026, 07:12 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Ledger entry: Line 1022
Verdict: Balanced · Sevilla win
Kick-off: Mon 26 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Sevilla vs Osasuna

Who is favourite for Sevilla vs Osasuna?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Sevilla win at 38%. Home 38%, draw 27%, away 35%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Sevilla vs Osasuna?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Sevilla vs Osasuna go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.