Who is favourite for Real Sociedad vs Levante UD?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Real Sociedad win at 47%. Home 47%, draw 26%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Real Sociedad vs Levante UD?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Real Sociedad vs Levante UD go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Real Sociedad vs Levante UD?

BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 10 · 2026/27

Real Sociedad vs Levante UD prediction

Slight lean

Real Sociedad win 47%

Sun 25 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon

Published 20 Oct 2026, 07:12 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Real SociedadvsLevante UD

Slight lean

Real Sociedad win47%

Real Sociedad win: 47%
Draw: 26%
Levante UD win: 27%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.57–1.12
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over75%; Under25%
2.5 goals: Over50%; Under50%
3.5 goals: Over28%; Under72%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Real Sociedad win 47%, from a +54 Elo gap (1510 vs 1456).
2Expected goals 1.57-1.12.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1510
+54
1456
La Liga table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Real Sociedad
WWLWD
Avg xG 1.20-1.73
Levante UD
DDLLD
Avg xG 1.28-2.28

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.3%
21010.2%
321Prediction9.4%
4208.3%
5017.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Real Sociedad versus Levante UD
Real Sociedad goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	7%	4%
1	10%	12%	7%	3%
2	8%	9%	5%
3	4%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Real Sociedad win

Disagrees

Fair

2.12

47% model

Listed

1.73

55% book

Draw

Fair

3.86

26% model

Listed

4.05

24% book

Levante UD win

Fair

3.73

27% model

Listed

4.50

21% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Real Sociedad win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 20 Oct 2026, 07:12 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Real Sociedad

Levante UD

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Real Sociedad

WWLWD

32Deportivo de A CoruñaHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.44–2.13
32ValenciaAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 2.65–1.55
03Atlético MadridHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.27–2.05
32ElcheAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.58–2.47
00Celta VigoHome · 3 Sept 2026
xG 1.05–0.43

Levante UD

DDLLD

11Deportivo de A CoruñaAway · 16 Oct 2026
xG 0.83–1.11
33SevillaHome · 12 Oct 2026
xG 1.82–2.20
13VillarrealAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.46–4.02
24FC BarcelonaHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.46–2.63
00Málaga CFAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.81–1.46

How to read the Real Sociedad vs Levante UD probabilities

Real Sociedad vs Levante UD (La Liga, 25 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Real Sociedad win 47%. Expected goals are 1.57–1.12. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Real Sociedad holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.57–1.12). That shows up as Real Sociedad win at 47%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 50%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 20 Oct 2026, 07:12 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Ledger entry: Line 1020
Verdict: Slight lean · Real Sociedad win
Kick-off: Sun 25 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Real Sociedad vs Levante UD

Who is favourite for Real Sociedad vs Levante UD?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Real Sociedad win at 47%. Home 47%, draw 26%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Real Sociedad vs Levante UD?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Real Sociedad vs Levante UD go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Real Sociedad vs Levante UD?: BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.