Who is favourite for Levante UD vs Atlético Madrid?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Atlético Madrid win at 51%. Home 24%, draw 25%, away 51%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Levante UD vs Atlético Madrid?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Levante UD vs Atlético Madrid go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Levante UD vs Atlético Madrid?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 11 · 2627.0

Levante UD vs Atlético Madrid prediction

Slight lean

Atlético Madrid win 51%

Sat 31 Oct, 13:00 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Levante UDvsAtlético Madrid

Slight lean

Atlético Madrid win51%

Levante UD win: 24%
Draw: 25%
Atlético Madrid win: 51%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.11–1.73
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over78%; Under22%
2.5 goals: Over54%; Under46%
3.5 goals: Over32%; Under68%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Atlético Madrid win 51%, from a -193 Elo gap (1464 vs 1657).
2Expected goals 1.11-1.73.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1464
-193
1657
La Liga table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Levante UD
WDDLL
Avg xG 1.51-2.37
Atlético Madrid
WWWWW
Avg xG 2.39-0.58

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.7%
2019.7%
312Prediction9.7%
4028.7%
5006.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Levante UD versus Atlético Madrid
Levante UD goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	6%	10%	9%	5%	2%
1	6%	12%	10%	6%	2%
2	4%	6%	5%	3%
3		2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 06:15 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Levante UD win

Fair

4.15

24% model

Listed

5.10

19% book

Draw

Fair

4.07

25% model

Listed

4.61

21% book

Atlético Madrid win

Disagrees

Fair

1.95

51% model

Listed

1.64

60% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 8 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Atlético Madrid win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Levante UD

Atlético Madrid

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Levante UD

WDDLL

31Athletic ClubHome · 21 Oct 2026
xG 1.98–1.90
11Deportivo de A CoruñaAway · 16 Oct 2026
xG 0.83–1.11
33SevillaHome · 12 Oct 2026
xG 1.82–2.20
13VillarrealAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.46–4.02
24FC BarcelonaHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.46–2.63

Atlético Madrid

WWWWW

10EspanyolAway · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.47–0.51
21Deportivo AlavésAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 2.05–1.30
21Real MadridHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 2.38–0.32
40OsasunaHome · 16 Sept 2026
xG 3.99–0.48
30Real SociedadAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.05–0.27

How to read the Levante UD vs Atlético Madrid probabilities

Levante UD vs Atlético Madrid (La Liga, 31 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Atlético Madrid win 51%. Expected goals are 1.11–1.73. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Atlético Madrid holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.11–1.73). That shows up as Atlético Madrid win at 51%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Atlético Madrid win
Kick-off: Sat 31 Oct, 13:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Levante UD vs Atlético Madrid

Who is favourite for Levante UD vs Atlético Madrid?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Atlético Madrid win at 51%. Home 24%, draw 25%, away 51%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Levante UD vs Atlético Madrid?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Levante UD vs Atlético Madrid go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Levante UD vs Atlético Madrid?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.