Who is favourite for Getafe vs Sevilla?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Sevilla win at 36%. Home 33%, draw 31%, away 36%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Getafe vs Sevilla?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Getafe vs Sevilla go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 35% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Getafe vs Sevilla?

BTTS is 43%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 11 · 2627.0

Getafe vs Sevilla prediction

Balanced

Sevilla win 36%

Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

GetafevsSevilla

Balanced

Sevilla win36%

Getafe win: 33%
Draw: 31%
Sevilla win: 36%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.03–1.08
Over 2.5: 35%
BTTS: 43%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over63%; Under37%
2.5 goals: Over35%; Under65%
3.5 goals: Over16%; Under84%

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Sevilla win 36%, from a -15 Elo gap (1466 vs 1481).
2Expected goals 1.03-1.08.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1466
-15
1481
La Liga table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Getafe
DLWLD
Avg xG 0.53-1.42
Sevilla
LDLWW
Avg xG 1.01-1.52

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.0%
20012.6%
30112.6%
41012.0%
5127.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Getafe versus Sevilla
Getafe goals	0	1	2	3
0	13%	13%	7%	3%
1	12%	14%	7%	3%
2	6%	7%	4%
3	2%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 06:15 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Getafe win

Fair

2.99

33% model

Listed

2.96

33% book

Draw

Fair

3.24

31% model

Listed

3.05

32% book

Sevilla win

Fair

2.80

36% model

Listed

2.80

35% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 9 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Getafe

Sevilla

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Getafe

DLWLD

11Rayo VallecanoHome · 19 Oct 2026
xG 0.57–2.25
03FC BarcelonaAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 0.14–1.93
10Málaga CFHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.90–0.52
01Real BetisAway · 17 Sept 2026
xG 0.32–1.53
11Deportivo de A CoruñaHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.70–0.88

Sevilla

LDLWW

14Real MadridAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 0.75–2.28
33Levante UDAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 2.20–1.82
13FC BarcelonaHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.45–3.26
10Deportivo de A CoruñaAway · 16 Sept 2026
xG 0.73–0.14
10ValenciaHome · 11 Sept 2026
xG 0.93–0.10

How to read the Getafe vs Sevilla probabilities

Getafe vs Sevilla (La Liga, 1 Nov 2026): Balanced. Sevilla win 36%. Expected goals are 1.03–1.08. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Getafe and Sevilla are close on expected goals (1.03–1.08), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 35%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 43%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Balanced · Sevilla win
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Getafe vs Sevilla

Who is favourite for Getafe vs Sevilla?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Sevilla win at 36%. Home 33%, draw 31%, away 36%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Getafe vs Sevilla?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Getafe vs Sevilla go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 35% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Getafe vs Sevilla?: BTTS is 43%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.