Who is favourite for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Osasuna?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Osasuna win at 38%. Home 36%, draw 25%, away 38%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Osasuna?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Deportivo de A Coruña vs Osasuna go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Deportivo de A Coruña vs Osasuna?

BTTS is 61%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 11 · 2627.0

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Osasuna prediction

Balanced

Osasuna win 38%

Mon 2 Nov, 20:00 Lisbon

Published 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Deportivo de A CoruñavsOsasuna

Balanced

Osasuna win38%

Both likely

Deportivo de A Coruña win: 36%
Draw: 25%
Osasuna win: 38%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.47–1.52
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 61%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over80%; Under20%
2.5 goals: Over57%; Under43%
3.5 goals: Over35%; Under65%

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Osasuna win 38%, from a -62 Elo gap (1406 vs 1468).
2Expected goals 1.47-1.52.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Both teams to score at 61%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1406
-62
1468
La Liga table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Deportivo de A Coruña
DLDLD
Avg xG 1.31-0.95
Osasuna
WLDLL
Avg xG 1.44-1.95

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.6%
212Prediction8.5%
3218.3%
4017.2%
5107.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo de A Coruña versus Osasuna
Deportivo de A Coruña goals	0	1	2	3
0	5%	7%	6%	3%
1	7%	12%	9%	4%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 06:15 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Deportivo de A Coruña win

Fair

2.74

36% model

Listed

2.32

41% book

Draw

Fair

3.98

25% model

Listed

3.25

29% book

Osasuna win

Disagrees

Fair

2.61

38% model

Listed

3.20

30% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 11 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Osasuna win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Deportivo de A Coruña

Osasuna

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Deportivo de A Coruña

DLDLD

11Levante UDHome · 16 Oct 2026
xG 1.11–0.83
23Real SociedadAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 2.13–1.44
11Real BetisHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 2.29–1.05
01SevillaHome · 16 Sept 2026
xG 0.14–0.73
11GetafeAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.88–0.70

Osasuna

WLDLL

20Real Racing ClubHome · 18 Oct 2026
xG 3.38–0.28
25Real BetisAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.94–2.89
11Rayo VallecanoHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.55–1.19
04Atlético MadridAway · 16 Sept 2026
xG 0.48–3.99
02EspanyolHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.87–1.42

How to read the Deportivo de A Coruña vs Osasuna probabilities

Deportivo de A Coruña vs Osasuna (La Liga, 2 Nov 2026): Balanced. Osasuna win 38%. Expected goals are 1.47–1.52. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Deportivo de A Coruña and Osasuna are close on expected goals (1.47–1.52), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 61%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Balanced · Osasuna win
Kick-off: Mon 2 Nov, 20:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Deportivo de A Coruña vs Osasuna

Who is favourite for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Osasuna?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Osasuna win at 38%. Home 36%, draw 25%, away 38%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo de A Coruña vs Osasuna?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Deportivo de A Coruña vs Osasuna go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Deportivo de A Coruña vs Osasuna?: BTTS is 61%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.