Who is favourite for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Athletic Club win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 26%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 11 · 2627.0

Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad prediction

Slight lean

Athletic Club win 46%

Sun 1 Nov, 20:00 Lisbon

Published 26 Oct 2026, 07:29 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Athletic ClubvsReal Sociedad

Slight lean

Athletic Club win46%

Athletic Club win: 46%
Draw: 26%
Real Sociedad win: 28%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.56–1.17
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over76%; Under24%
2.5 goals: Over52%; Under48%
3.5 goals: Over29%; Under71%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Athletic Club win 46%, from a -2 Elo gap (1514 vs 1516).
2Expected goals 1.56-1.17.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1514
-2
1516
La Liga table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Athletic Club
LDDDD
Avg xG 1.32-0.86
Real Sociedad
WWWLW
Avg xG 1.48-1.89

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.3%
2109.7%
321Prediction9.3%
4207.9%
5017.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Athletic Club versus Real Sociedad
Athletic Club goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	7%	4%
1	10%	12%	7%	3%
2	8%	9%	5%	2%
3	4%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 06:15 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Athletic Club win

Fair

2.18

46% model

Listed

2.05

47% book

Draw

Fair

3.86

26% model

Listed

3.65

27% book

Real Sociedad win

Fair

3.55

28% model

Listed

3.76

26% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 10 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 26 Oct 2026, 07:29 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Athletic Club

Real Sociedad

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Athletic Club

LDDDD

13Levante UDAway · 21 Oct 2026
xG 1.90–1.98
00ValenciaAway · 17 Oct 2026
xG 0.59–1.41
00Rayo VallecanoAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 0.06–0.02
00Deportivo AlavésHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.65–0.05
11ElcheHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 2.42–0.84

Real Sociedad

WWWLW

52Málaga CFAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 2.44–1.24
32Deportivo de A CoruñaHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.44–2.13
32ValenciaAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 2.65–1.55
03Atlético MadridHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.27–2.05
32ElcheAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.58–2.47

How to read the Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad probabilities

Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad (La Liga, 1 Nov 2026): Slight lean. Athletic Club win 46%. Expected goals are 1.56–1.17. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Athletic Club holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.56–1.17). That shows up as Athletic Club win at 46%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 55%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 26 Oct 2026, 07:29 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Athletic Club win
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov, 20:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad

Who is favourite for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Athletic Club win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 26%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?: BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.