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Allsvenskan · Round 25 · 2026/27

Västerås SK vs Halmstads BK prediction

Clear lean

Västerås SK win 65%

· Hitachi Energy Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Västerås SKvsHalmstads BK
Clear lean

Västerås SK win65%

Västerås SK win
65%
Draw
21%
Halmstads BK win
14%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 2–0 at 12%

Expected goals
2.04–0.84

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
55%
BTTS
50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over78%
Under22%
2.5 goals
Over55%
Under45%
3.5 goals
Over33%
Under67%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Västerås SK win 65%, from a +61 Elo gap (1485 vs 1424).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.04-0.84.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo

1485

+61

1424

Allsvenskan table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Västerås SK

WLWWL

Avg xG 1.56-1.99

Halmstads BK

DLWLL

Avg xG 1.18-2.50

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 120Modal11.7%
  2. 21011.3%
  3. 321Prediction9.8%
  4. 4119.8%
  5. 5307.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Västerås SK versus Halmstads BK
Västerås SK goals012345
06%5%
111%10%4%
212%10%4%
38%7%3%
44%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Västerås SK win

Västerås SK win: model 65%, fair 1.54, listed 1.66 (56%)

Fair

1.54

65% model

Listed

1.66

56% book

Draw

Draw: model 21%, fair 4.87, listed 3.95 (24%)

Fair

4.87

21% model

Listed

3.95

24% book

Halmstads BK win

Halmstads BK win: model 14%, fair 6.97, listed 4.55 (20%)

Fair

6.97

14% model

Listed

4.55

20% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 55%, fair 1.82, listed 1.62 (58%)

Fair
1.82
Listed
1.62

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 45%, fair 2.22, listed 2.28 (42%)

Fair
2.22
Listed
2.28

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 50%, fair 2.01, listed 1.62 (58%)

Fair
2.01
Listed
1.62

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 50%, fair 1.99, listed 2.22 (42%)

Fair
1.99
Listed
2.22

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Västerås SK

  1. 34 Elis Jäger · G
  2. 2 Herman Magnusson · D
  3. 4 Philip Bonde · D
  4. 15 Jonathan Karlsson · D
  5. 24 Jack Tagesson · D
  6. 8 Mamadou Diagne · M
  7. 11 Simon Gefvert · M
  8. 19 Jens Magnusson · M
  9. 30 Mattias Hellisdal · M
  10. 16 Bonaventure Lendambi · F
  11. 17 Taonsa Axel · F

Halmstads BK

  1. 1 Tim Rönning · G
  2. 3 Gabriel Wallentin · D
  3. 5 Pascal Gregor · D
  4. 17 Andre Boman · D
  5. 6 Joel Allansson · M
  6. 8 Niilo Mäenpää · M
  7. 11 Ludvig Arvidsson · M
  8. 14 Hussein Carneil · M
  9. 24 Rami Kaib · M
  10. 27 Rocco Ascone · M
  11. 28 Tom Trybull · M

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Västerås SK

WLWWL
  • 10Mjällby AIFHome · 18 Oct 2026
  • 01IFK GöteborgAway · 9 Oct 2026

    xG 0.89–0.92

  • 20Malmö FFHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 0.71–2.82

  • 41AIKAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 3.67–3.23

  • 01IK SiriusHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.98–0.99

Halmstads BK

DLWLL
  • 00Hammarby IFHome · 18 Oct 2026
  • 04IF ElfsborgAway · 12 Oct 2026

    xG 0.64–3.04

  • 21AIKHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.85–2.36

  • 12IFK GöteborgAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.42–1.76

  • 02Degerfors IFAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.80–2.83

How to read the Västerås SK vs Halmstads BK probabilities

Västerås SK vs Halmstads BK (Allsvenskan, 23 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Västerås SK win 65%. Expected goals are 2.04–0.84. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Västerås SK is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.04–0.84). Västerås SK win is 65%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 2–0 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 55%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Västerås SK win
Kick-off
Fri 23 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Västerås SK vs Halmstads BK

Who is favourite for Västerås SK vs Halmstads BK?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Västerås SK win at 65%. Home 65%, draw 21%, away 14%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Västerås SK vs Halmstads BK?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Västerås SK vs Halmstads BK go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Västerås SK vs Halmstads BK?
BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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