Who is favourite for Örgryte IS vs Mjällby AIF?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Mjällby AIF win at 42%. Home 33%, draw 25%, away 42%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Örgryte IS vs Mjällby AIF?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Örgryte IS vs Mjällby AIF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Örgryte IS vs Mjällby AIF?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 26 · 2026/27

Örgryte IS vs Mjällby AIF prediction

Slight lean

Mjällby AIF win 42%

Thu 29 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Published 22 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Örgryte ISvsMjällby AIF

Slight lean

Mjällby AIF win42%

Örgryte IS win: 33%
Draw: 25%
Mjällby AIF win: 42%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.29–1.48
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over76%; Under24%
2.5 goals: Over52%; Under48%
3.5 goals: Over30%; Under70%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Mjällby AIF win 42%, from a -167 Elo gap (1412 vs 1579).
2Expected goals 1.29-1.48.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1412
-167
1579
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Örgryte IS
WLLLD
Avg xG 1.18-3.11
Mjällby AIF
LDLDD
Avg xG 1.59-1.74

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.6%
2019.6%
312Prediction8.8%
4108.4%
5217.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Örgryte IS versus Mjällby AIF
Örgryte IS goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	10%	7%	3%
1	8%	12%	9%	4%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%
3	2%	3%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 14:10 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Örgryte IS win

Fair

2.99

33% model

Listed

3.50

28% book

Draw

Fair

4.06

25% model

Listed

3.80

26% book

Mjällby AIF win

Fair

2.38

42% model

Listed

2.10

46% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 22 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Örgryte IS

Mjällby AIF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Örgryte IS

WLLLD

42GAISHome · 18 Oct 2026
xG 2.35–2.38
03BK HäckenAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 0.31–3.82
12IK SiriusHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.18–1.16
14Malmö FFAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.31–3.36
11Hammarby IFHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.77–4.85

Mjällby AIF

LDLDD

01Västerås SKAway · 18 Oct 2026
11Degerfors IFHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 2.31–0.75
03GAISHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.20–1.34
11AIKAway · 16 Sept 2026
xG 1.84–3.18
11BK HäckenAway · 11 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–1.71

How to read the Örgryte IS vs Mjällby AIF probabilities

Örgryte IS vs Mjällby AIF (Allsvenskan, 29 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Mjällby AIF win 42%. Expected goals are 1.29–1.48. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Örgryte IS and Mjällby AIF are close on expected goals (1.29–1.48), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 22 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 1091
Verdict: Slight lean · Mjällby AIF win
Kick-off: Thu 29 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Örgryte IS vs Mjällby AIF

Who is favourite for Örgryte IS vs Mjällby AIF?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Mjällby AIF win at 42%. Home 33%, draw 25%, away 42%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Örgryte IS vs Mjällby AIF?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Örgryte IS vs Mjällby AIF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Örgryte IS vs Mjällby AIF?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.