Who is favourite for Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Kalmar FF win at 46%. Home 28%, draw 26%, away 46%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 27 · 2627.0

Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF prediction

Slight lean

Kalmar FF win 46%

Mon 2 Nov, 18:00 Lisbon

Published 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Mjällby AIFvsKalmar FF

Slight lean

Kalmar FF win46%

Mjällby AIF win: 28%
Draw: 26%
Kalmar FF win: 46%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.06–1.45
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over71%; Under29%
2.5 goals: Over46%; Under54%
3.5 goals: Over24%; Under76%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Kalmar FF win 46%, from a +113 Elo gap (1579 vs 1466).
2Expected goals 1.06-1.45.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1579
+113
1466
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Mjällby AIF
LDLDD
Avg xG 1.59-1.74
Kalmar FF
WLLLL
Avg xG 2.16-2.01

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

101Modal12.2%
21112.2%
312Prediction9.0%
4109.0%
5028.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Mjällby AIF versus Kalmar FF
Mjällby AIF goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	12%	9%	4%
1	9%	12%	9%	4%
2	5%	7%	5%	2%
3		2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Mjällby AIF

Kalmar FF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Mjällby AIF

LDLDD

01Västerås SKAway · 18 Oct 2026
11Degerfors IFHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 2.31–0.75
03GAISHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.20–1.34
11AIKAway · 16 Sept 2026
xG 1.84–3.18
11BK HäckenAway · 11 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–1.71

Kalmar FF

WLLLL

21Degerfors IFAway · 19 Oct 2026
xG 3.55–1.26
01Malmö FFAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 2.62–2.59
05BK HäckenHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–3.24
01IF ElfsborgAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.98–2.47
01Djurgårdens IFHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.65–0.48

How to read the Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF probabilities

Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF (Allsvenskan, 2 Nov 2026): Slight lean. Kalmar FF win 46%. Expected goals are 1.06–1.45. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Kalmar FF holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.06–1.45). That shows up as Kalmar FF win at 46%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 46%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Kalmar FF win
Kick-off: Mon 2 Nov, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF

Who is favourite for Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Kalmar FF win at 46%. Home 28%, draw 26%, away 46%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Mjällby AIF vs Kalmar FF?: BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.