Who is favourite for Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby IF?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 63%. Home 16%, draw 21%, away 63%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby IF?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–2 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby IF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby IF?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 25 · 2026/27

Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby IF prediction

Clear lean

Hammarby IF win 63%

Sun 25 Oct, 15:30 Lisbon

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Mjällby AIFvsHammarby IF

Clear lean

Hammarby IF win63%

Mjällby AIF win: 16%
Draw: 21%
Hammarby IF win: 63%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 0.87–1.97
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over78%; Under22%
2.5 goals: Over54%; Under46%
3.5 goals: Over32%; Under68%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Hammarby IF win 63%, from a -62 Elo gap (1579 vs 1641).
2Expected goals 0.87-1.97.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 11%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1579
-62
1641
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Mjällby AIF
LDLDD
Avg xG 1.59-1.74
Hammarby IF
DLWWD
Avg xG 2.55-1.37

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

102Modal11.3%
20111.3%
31110.2%
412Prediction9.9%
5037.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Mjällby AIF versus Hammarby IF
Mjällby AIF goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	6%	11%	11%	7%	4%
1	5%	10%	10%	6%	3%
2	2%	4%	4%	3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Mjällby AIF

Hammarby IF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Mjällby AIF

LDLDD

01Västerås SKAway · 18 Oct 2026
11Degerfors IFHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 2.31–0.75
03GAISHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.20–1.34
11AIKAway · 16 Sept 2026
xG 1.84–3.18
11BK HäckenAway · 11 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–1.71

Hammarby IF

DLWWD

00Halmstads BKAway · 18 Oct 2026
01Djurgårdens IFHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.01–1.75
10Degerfors IFAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 2.34–1.95
31IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.02–1.00
11Örgryte ISAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 4.85–0.77

How to read the Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby IF probabilities

Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby IF (Allsvenskan, 25 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Hammarby IF win 63%. Expected goals are 0.87–1.97. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Hammarby IF is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.87–1.97). Hammarby IF win is 63%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–2 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Hammarby IF win
Kick-off: Sun 25 Oct, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby IF

Who is favourite for Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby IF?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 63%. Home 16%, draw 21%, away 63%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby IF?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–2 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby IF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Mjällby AIF vs Hammarby IF?: BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.