Who is favourite for Malmö FF vs Hammarby IF?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 52%. Home 24%, draw 25%, away 52%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Malmö FF vs Hammarby IF?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Malmö FF vs Hammarby IF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Malmö FF vs Hammarby IF?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 27 · 2627.0

Malmö FF vs Hammarby IF prediction

Slight lean

Hammarby IF win 52%

Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Malmö FFvsHammarby IF

Slight lean

Hammarby IF win52%

Malmö FF win: 24%
Draw: 25%
Hammarby IF win: 52%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 0.96–1.57
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over72%; Under29%
2.5 goals: Over46%; Under54%
3.5 goals: Over25%; Under75%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Hammarby IF win 52%, from a -52 Elo gap (1597 vs 1649).
2Expected goals 0.96-1.57.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 13%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1597
-52
1649
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Malmö FF
LWLWD
Avg xG 2.44-1.37
Hammarby IF
WLWWD
Avg xG 2.43-1.22

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

101Modal12.8%
21111.7%
3029.8%
412Prediction9.4%
5108.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Malmö FF versus Hammarby IF
Malmö FF goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	8%	13%	10%	5%	2%
1	8%	12%	9%	5%
2	4%	6%	5%	2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Malmö FF

Hammarby IF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Malmö FF

LWLWD

01BK HäckenHome · 18 Oct 2026
xG 2.04–1.51
10Kalmar FFHome · 12 Oct 2026
xG 2.59–2.62
02Västerås SKAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 2.82–0.71
41Örgryte ISHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 3.36–1.31
00AIKHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.40–0.68

Hammarby IF

WLWWD

10Halmstads BKAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 1.95–0.61
01Djurgårdens IFHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.01–1.75
10Degerfors IFAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 2.34–1.95
31IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.02–1.00
11Örgryte ISAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 4.85–0.77

How to read the Malmö FF vs Hammarby IF probabilities

Malmö FF vs Hammarby IF (Allsvenskan, 1 Nov 2026): Slight lean. Hammarby IF win 52%. Expected goals are 0.96–1.57. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Hammarby IF holds a modest expected-goals edge (0.96–1.57). That shows up as Hammarby IF win at 52%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 46%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Hammarby IF win
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Malmö FF vs Hammarby IF

Who is favourite for Malmö FF vs Hammarby IF?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 52%. Home 24%, draw 25%, away 52%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Malmö FF vs Hammarby IF?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Malmö FF vs Hammarby IF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Malmö FF vs Hammarby IF?: BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.