Who is favourite for Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Kalmar FF win at 40%. Home 40%, draw 26%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 25 · 2026/27

Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna prediction

Slight lean

Kalmar FF win 40%

Sat 24 Oct, 16:30 Lisbon · Guldfageln Arena

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Kalmar FFvsIF Brommapojkarna

Slight lean

Kalmar FF win40%

Kalmar FF win: 40%
Draw: 26%
IF Brommapojkarna win: 34%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.45–1.30
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over76%; Under24%
2.5 goals: Over52%; Under48%
3.5 goals: Over30%; Under70%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Kalmar FF win 40%, from a -9 Elo gap (1457 vs 1465).
2Expected goals 1.45-1.30.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Aboubacar Keita listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1457
-9
1465
Allsvenskan table
Out: Kalmar FF3 out
Aboubacar Keita
Alexander Almqvist
Emeka Nnamani
IF BrommapojkarnaNone out
No listed absences
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Kalmar FF
LLLLL
Avg xG 1.80-1.99
IF Brommapojkarna
LWLLW
Avg xG 1.41-1.83

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.3%
2109.1%
321Prediction8.7%
4018.1%
5127.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Kalmar FF versus IF Brommapojkarna
Kalmar FF goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	8%	5%	2%
1	9%	12%	8%	3%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 09:28 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Kalmar FF win

Fair

2.48

40% model

Listed

2.04

47% book

Draw

Fair

3.86

26% model

Listed

3.75

26% book

IF Brommapojkarna win

Fair

2.97

34% model

Listed

3.60

27% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.93
Listed: 1.68

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.07
Listed: 2.02

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.79
Listed: 1.60

BTTS no

Fair: 2.26
Listed: 2.14

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Kalmar FF3 out

Aboubacar KeitaOutUnknown
Alexander AlmqvistOutIllness
Emeka NnamaniOutUnknown

IF BrommapojkarnaNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Kalmar FF

IF Brommapojkarna

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Kalmar FF

LLLLL

01Malmö FFAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 2.62–2.59
05BK HäckenHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–3.24
01IF ElfsborgAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.98–2.47
01Djurgårdens IFHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.65–0.48
01Halmstads BKAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.74–1.15

IF Brommapojkarna

LWLLW

02Djurgårdens IFHome · 16 Oct 2026
xG 0.92–1.30
65AIKAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 2.85–2.45
01IFK GöteborgHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.79–2.38
13Hammarby IFAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.00–2.02
21IF ElfsborgHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.51–0.98

How to read the Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna probabilities

Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna (Allsvenskan, 24 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Kalmar FF win 40%. Expected goals are 1.45–1.30. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna are close on expected goals (1.45–1.30), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Kalmar FF win
Kick-off: Sat 24 Oct, 16:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna

Who is favourite for Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Kalmar FF win at 40%. Home 40%, draw 26%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.