Who is favourite for Kalmar FF vs GAIS?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is GAIS win at 47%. Home 28%, draw 25%, away 47%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Kalmar FF vs GAIS?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Kalmar FF vs GAIS go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Kalmar FF vs GAIS?

BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 26 · 2026/27

Kalmar FF vs GAIS prediction

Slight lean

GAIS win 47%

Thu 29 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Published 22 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Kalmar FFvsGAIS

Slight lean

GAIS win47%

Kalmar FF win: 28%
Draw: 25%
GAIS win: 47%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.13–1.53
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over74%; Under26%
2.5 goals: Over50%; Under50%
3.5 goals: Over28%; Under72%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: GAIS win 47%, from a -76 Elo gap (1466 vs 1542).
2Expected goals 1.13-1.53.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1466
-76
1542
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Kalmar FF
WLLLL
Avg xG 2.16-2.01
GAIS
LLWLD
Avg xG 1.74-1.90

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.8%
20111.1%
312Prediction9.3%
4108.2%
5028.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Kalmar FF versus GAIS
Kalmar FF goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	11%	8%	4%
1	8%	12%	9%	5%
2	4%	7%	5%	3%
3		3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 14:10 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Kalmar FF win

Fair

3.53

28% model

Listed

3.35

29% book

Draw

Fair

4.04

25% model

Listed

3.50

28% book

GAIS win

Fair

2.13

47% model

Listed

2.23

43% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 22 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Kalmar FF

GAIS

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Kalmar FF

WLLLL

21Degerfors IFAway · 19 Oct 2026
xG 3.55–1.26
01Malmö FFAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 2.62–2.59
05BK HäckenHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–3.24
01IF ElfsborgAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.98–2.47
01Djurgårdens IFHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.65–0.48

GAIS

LLWLD

24Örgryte ISAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 2.38–2.35
01IK SiriusHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.70–1.56
30Mjällby AIFAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.34–1.20
02Djurgårdens IFAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.76–2.27
00BK HäckenHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.54–2.14

How to read the Kalmar FF vs GAIS probabilities

Kalmar FF vs GAIS (Allsvenskan, 29 Oct 2026): Slight lean. GAIS win 47%. Expected goals are 1.13–1.53. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

GAIS holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.13–1.53). That shows up as GAIS win at 47%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 50%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 22 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 1090
Verdict: Slight lean · GAIS win
Kick-off: Thu 29 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Kalmar FF vs GAIS

Who is favourite for Kalmar FF vs GAIS?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is GAIS win at 47%. Home 28%, draw 25%, away 47%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Kalmar FF vs GAIS?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Kalmar FF vs GAIS go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Kalmar FF vs GAIS?: BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.