Who is favourite for IK Sirius vs Halmstads BK?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IK Sirius win at 54%. Home 54%, draw 23%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for IK Sirius vs Halmstads BK?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will IK Sirius vs Halmstads BK go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in IK Sirius vs Halmstads BK?

BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 27 · 2627.0

IK Sirius vs Halmstads BK prediction

Slight lean

IK Sirius win 54%

Tue 3 Nov, 18:00 Lisbon

Published 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

IK SiriusvsHalmstads BK

Slight lean

IK Sirius win54%

IK Sirius win: 54%
Draw: 23%
Halmstads BK win: 23%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.77–1.07
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over77%; Under23%
2.5 goals: Over54%; Under46%
3.5 goals: Over32%; Under68%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: IK Sirius win 54%, from a +190 Elo gap (1606 vs 1416).
2Expected goals 1.77-1.07.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1606
+190
1416
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: IK Sirius
DWWWW
Avg xG 1.41-1.40
Halmstads BK
LLWLL
Avg xG 1.06-2.39

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal10.8%
21010.7%
321Prediction9.8%
4209.2%
5016.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for IK Sirius versus Halmstads BK
IK Sirius goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	7%	3%
1	11%	11%	6%	2%
2	9%	10%	5%
3	5%	6%	3%
4	2%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

IK Sirius

Halmstads BK

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IK Sirius

DWWWW

22IF ElfsborgHome · 18 Oct 2026
10GAISAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.56–1.70
21Örgryte ISAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.16–1.18
20Degerfors IFHome · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.91–1.72
10Västerås SKAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.99–0.98

Halmstads BK

LLWLL

01Hammarby IFHome · 18 Oct 2026
xG 0.61–1.95
04IF ElfsborgAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 0.64–3.04
21AIKHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.85–2.36
12IFK GöteborgAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.42–1.76
02Degerfors IFAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.80–2.83

How to read the IK Sirius vs Halmstads BK probabilities

IK Sirius vs Halmstads BK (Allsvenskan, 3 Nov 2026): Slight lean. IK Sirius win 54%. Expected goals are 1.77–1.07. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

IK Sirius holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.77–1.07). That shows up as IK Sirius win at 54%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · IK Sirius win
Kick-off: Tue 3 Nov, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about IK Sirius vs Halmstads BK

Who is favourite for IK Sirius vs Halmstads BK?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IK Sirius win at 54%. Home 54%, draw 23%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IK Sirius vs Halmstads BK?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will IK Sirius vs Halmstads BK go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IK Sirius vs Halmstads BK?: BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.