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Allsvenskan · Round 25 · 2026/27

IK Sirius vs AIK prediction

Slight lean

IK Sirius win 49%

· Studenternas IP

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

IK SiriusvsAIK
Slight lean

IK Sirius win49%

Open gameBoth likely
IK Sirius win
49%
Draw
23%
AIK win
28%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 10%

Expected goals
1.83–1.35

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
62%
BTTS
62%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over83%
Under17%
2.5 goals
Over62%
Under38%
3.5 goals
Over39%
Under61%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: IK Sirius win 49%, from a +43 Elo gap (1606 vs 1563).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.83-1.35.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 62%.
  5. 5Sotirios Papagiannopoulos listed out.

Match briefing

Elo

1606

+43

1563

Allsvenskan table
Out

IK SiriusNone out

No listed absences

AIK1 out

  • Sotirios Papagiannopoulos
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

IK Sirius

DWWWW

Avg xG 1.41-1.40

AIK

DLLDL

Avg xG 2.54-2.34

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal10.4%
  2. 221Prediction9.4%
  3. 3107.4%
  4. 4207.0%
  5. 5126.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for IK Sirius versus AIK
IK Sirius goals012345
04%5%4%
17%10%7%3%
27%9%6%3%
34%6%4%
43%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

IK Sirius win

IK Sirius win: model 49%, fair 2.05, listed 1.58 (59%)

Fair

2.05

49% model

Listed

1.58

59% book

Draw

Draw: model 23%, fair 4.32, listed 4.45 (21%)

Fair

4.32

23% model

Listed

4.45

21% book

AIK win

AIK win: model 28%, fair 3.55, listed 4.80 (20%)

Fair

3.55

28% model

Listed

4.80

20% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 62%, fair 1.62, listed 1.47 (64%)

Fair
1.62
Listed
1.47

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 38%, fair 2.60, listed 2.62 (36%)

Fair
2.60
Listed
2.62

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 62%, fair 1.60, listed 1.52 (61%)

Fair
1.60
Listed
1.52

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 38%, fair 2.66, listed 2.42 (39%)

Fair
2.66
Listed
2.42

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

IK SiriusNone out

No listed absences.

AIK1 out

  • Sotirios PapagiannopoulosOutKnee Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

IK Sirius

  1. 34 David Celic · G
  2. 2 Mohamed Soumah · D
  3. 4 Tobias Anker · D
  4. 5 Henrik Castegren · D
  5. 22 Oscar Krusnell · D
  6. 6 Marcus Lindberg · M
  7. 10 Melker Heier · M
  8. 24 Victor Svensson · M
  9. 30 Zalán Vancsa · M
  10. 9 Jesper Uneken · F
  11. 11 Isak Bjerkebo · F

AIK

  1. 15 Kristoffer Nordfeldt · G
  2. 2 Eskil Edh · D
  3. 3 Hervé Matthys · D
  4. 17 Mads Døhr Thychosen · D
  5. 34 Wilmer Olofsson · D
  6. 8 Johan Hove · M
  7. 10 Lucas Assadi · M
  8. 18 Abdihakin Ali · M
  9. 46 Yannick Geiger · M
  10. 48 Axel Kouame · M
  11. 9 Linus Carlstrand · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IK Sirius

DWWWW
  • 22IF ElfsborgHome · 18 Oct 2026
  • 10GAISAway · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 1.56–1.70

  • 21Örgryte ISAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.16–1.18

  • 20Degerfors IFHome · 14 Sept 2026

    xG 1.91–1.72

  • 10Västerås SKAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.99–0.98

AIK

DLLDL
  • 22IFK GöteborgHome · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 1.50–1.50

  • 56IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 2.45–2.85

  • 12Halmstads BKAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 2.36–1.85

  • 11Mjällby AIFHome · 16 Sept 2026

    xG 3.18–1.84

  • 14Västerås SKHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 3.23–3.67

How to read the IK Sirius vs AIK probabilities

IK Sirius vs AIK (Allsvenskan, 24 Oct 2026): Slight lean. IK Sirius win 49%. Expected goals are 1.83–1.35. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

IK Sirius holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.83–1.35). That shows up as IK Sirius win at 49%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 62%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 62%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · IK Sirius win
Kick-off
Sat 24 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about IK Sirius vs AIK

Who is favourite for IK Sirius vs AIK?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IK Sirius win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 23%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IK Sirius vs AIK?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will IK Sirius vs AIK go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 62% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IK Sirius vs AIK?
BTTS is 62%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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