Who is favourite for IF Elfsborg vs Örgryte IS?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IF Elfsborg win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 25%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for IF Elfsborg vs Örgryte IS?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will IF Elfsborg vs Örgryte IS go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 48% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in IF Elfsborg vs Örgryte IS?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 27 · 2627.0

IF Elfsborg vs Örgryte IS prediction

Slight lean

IF Elfsborg win 44%

Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

IF ElfsborgvsÖrgryte IS

Slight lean

IF Elfsborg win44%

IF Elfsborg win: 44%
Draw: 25%
Örgryte IS win: 30%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.45–1.15
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over73%; Under27%
2.5 goals: Over48%; Under52%
3.5 goals: Over27%; Under73%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: IF Elfsborg win 44%, from a +163 Elo gap (1574 vs 1412).
2Expected goals 1.45-1.15.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1574
+163
1412
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: IF Elfsborg
DWWWL
Avg xG 2.04-1.38
Örgryte IS
WLLLD
Avg xG 1.18-3.11

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.0%
21011.1%
321Prediction9.0%
4018.9%
5207.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for IF Elfsborg versus Örgryte IS
IF Elfsborg goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	9%	5%
1	11%	12%	7%	3%
2	8%	9%	5%
3	4%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

IF Elfsborg

Örgryte IS

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IF Elfsborg

DWWWL

22IK SiriusAway · 18 Oct 2026
40Halmstads BKHome · 12 Oct 2026
xG 3.04–0.64
21Djurgårdens IFAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.68–1.40
10Kalmar FFHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.47–1.98
12IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.98–1.51

Örgryte IS

WLLLD

42GAISHome · 18 Oct 2026
xG 2.35–2.38
03BK HäckenAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 0.31–3.82
12IK SiriusHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.18–1.16
14Malmö FFAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.31–3.36
11Hammarby IFHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.77–4.85

How to read the IF Elfsborg vs Örgryte IS probabilities

IF Elfsborg vs Örgryte IS (Allsvenskan, 1 Nov 2026): Slight lean. IF Elfsborg win 44%. Expected goals are 1.45–1.15. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

IF Elfsborg holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.45–1.15). That shows up as IF Elfsborg win at 44%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 48%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · IF Elfsborg win
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about IF Elfsborg vs Örgryte IS

Who is favourite for IF Elfsborg vs Örgryte IS?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IF Elfsborg win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 25%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IF Elfsborg vs Örgryte IS?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will IF Elfsborg vs Örgryte IS go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 48% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IF Elfsborg vs Örgryte IS?: BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.