Who is favourite for IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Malmö FF win at 59%. Home 20%, draw 21%, away 59%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?

1–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 62% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?

BTTS is 60%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 25 · 2026/27

IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF prediction

Clear lean

Malmö FF win 59%

Fri 23 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon · Borås Arena

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

IF ElfsborgvsMalmö FF

Clear lean

Malmö FF win59%

Open game

IF Elfsborg win: 20%
Draw: 21%
Malmö FF win: 59%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.14–2.08
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 60%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over83%; Under17%
2.5 goals: Over62%; Under38%
3.5 goals: Over40%; Under60%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Malmö FF win 59%, from a -31 Elo gap (1574 vs 1605).
2Expected goals 1.14-2.08.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Over 2.5 at 62%.
5Isaac Assibu listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1574
-31
1605
Allsvenskan table
Out: IF ElfsborgNone out
No listed absences
Malmö FF4 out
Isaac Assibu
Kenan Busuladžić
Noah Åstrand John
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: IF Elfsborg
DWWWL
Avg xG 2.04-1.38
Malmö FF
DWLWD
Avg xG 2.54-1.33

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

112Prediction9.8%
2119.6%
3028.6%
4018.1%
5136.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for IF Elfsborg versus Malmö FF
IF Elfsborg goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	4%	8%	9%	6%	3%
1	4%	10%	10%	7%	4%
2	3%	5%	6%	4%	2%
3		2%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:35 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

IF Elfsborg win

Fair

4.98

20% model

Listed

2.05

46% book

Draw

Fair

4.73

21% model

Listed

3.56

26% book

Malmö FF win

Disagrees

Fair

1.70

59% model

Listed

3.30

28% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Malmö FF win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.60
Listed: 1.75

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.67
Listed: 2.02

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.67
Listed: 1.62

BTTS no

Fair: 2.49
Listed: 2.18

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

IF ElfsborgNone out

No listed absences.

Malmö FF4 out · 2 doubtful

Isaac AssibuOutUnknown
Kenan BusuladžićOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Noah Åstrand JohnOutUnknown
Oscar SjostrandOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Jovan MilosavljevićDoubtfulUnknown
Mayckel LahdoDoubtfulMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

IF Elfsborg

Malmö FF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IF Elfsborg

DWWWL

22IK SiriusAway · 18 Oct 2026
40Halmstads BKHome · 12 Oct 2026
xG 3.04–0.64
21Djurgårdens IFAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.68–1.40
10Kalmar FFHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.47–1.98
12IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.98–1.51

Malmö FF

DWLWD

00BK HäckenHome · 18 Oct 2026
10Kalmar FFHome · 12 Oct 2026
xG 2.59–2.62
02Västerås SKAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 2.82–0.71
41Örgryte ISHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 3.36–1.31
00AIKHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.40–0.68

How to read the IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF probabilities

IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF (Allsvenskan, 23 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Malmö FF win 59%. Expected goals are 1.14–2.08. Prediction 1–2 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Malmö FF is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.14–2.08). Malmö FF win is 59%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–2 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 62%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 60%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Malmö FF win
Kick-off: Fri 23 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF

Who is favourite for IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Malmö FF win at 59%. Home 20%, draw 21%, away 59%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?: 1–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 62% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IF Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?: BTTS is 60%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.