Who is favourite for Hammarby IF vs IK Sirius?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 59%. Home 59%, draw 22%, away 19%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Hammarby IF vs IK Sirius?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Hammarby IF vs IK Sirius go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Hammarby IF vs IK Sirius?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 26 · 2026/27

Hammarby IF vs IK Sirius prediction

Clear lean

Hammarby IF win 59%

Thu 29 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon

Published 22 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Hammarby IFvsIK Sirius

Clear lean

Hammarby IF win59%

Hammarby IF win: 59%
Draw: 22%
IK Sirius win: 19%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.84–0.93
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over76%; Under24%
2.5 goals: Over52%; Under48%
3.5 goals: Over30%; Under70%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Hammarby IF win 59%, from a +43 Elo gap (1649 vs 1606).
2Expected goals 1.84-0.93.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1649
+43
1606
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Hammarby IF
WLWWD
Avg xG 2.43-1.22
IK Sirius
DWWWW
Avg xG 1.41-1.40

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

110Modal11.8%
22010.6%
31110.4%
421Prediction9.9%
5306.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Hammarby IF versus IK Sirius
Hammarby IF goals	0	1	2
0	6%	6%	3%
1	12%	10%	5%
2	11%	10%	5%
3	6%	6%	3%
4	3%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 14:10 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Hammarby IF win

Fair

1.69

59% model

Listed

1.57

62% book

Draw

Fair

4.55

22% model

Listed

4.70

21% book

IK Sirius win

Fair

5.26

19% model

Listed

5.75

17% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 22 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Hammarby IF

IK Sirius

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Hammarby IF

WLWWD

10Halmstads BKAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 1.95–0.61
01Djurgårdens IFHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.01–1.75
10Degerfors IFAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 2.34–1.95
31IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.02–1.00
11Örgryte ISAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 4.85–0.77

IK Sirius

DWWWW

22IF ElfsborgHome · 18 Oct 2026
10GAISAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.56–1.70
21Örgryte ISAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.16–1.18
20Degerfors IFHome · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.91–1.72
10Västerås SKAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.99–0.98

How to read the Hammarby IF vs IK Sirius probabilities

Hammarby IF vs IK Sirius (Allsvenskan, 29 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Hammarby IF win 59%. Expected goals are 1.84–0.93. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Hammarby IF is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.84–0.93). Hammarby IF win is 59%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–0 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 22 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 1089
Verdict: Clear lean · Hammarby IF win
Kick-off: Thu 29 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Hammarby IF vs IK Sirius

Who is favourite for Hammarby IF vs IK Sirius?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 59%. Home 59%, draw 22%, away 19%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Hammarby IF vs IK Sirius?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Hammarby IF vs IK Sirius go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Hammarby IF vs IK Sirius?: BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.