Who is favourite for GAIS vs IFK Göteborg?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is GAIS win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 25%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for GAIS vs IFK Göteborg?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will GAIS vs IFK Göteborg go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in GAIS vs IFK Göteborg?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 25 · 2026/27

GAIS vs IFK Göteborg prediction

Slight lean

GAIS win 41%

Sun 25 Oct, 13:00 Lisbon · Gamla Ullevi

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

GAISvsIFK Göteborg

Slight lean

GAIS win41%

GAIS win: 41%
Draw: 25%
IFK Göteborg win: 34%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.47–1.30
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over76%; Under24%
2.5 goals: Over52%; Under48%
3.5 goals: Over30%; Under70%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: GAIS win 41%, from a -4 Elo gap (1550 vs 1554).
2Expected goals 1.47-1.30.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Dennis Collander listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: 1550
-4
1554
Allsvenskan table
Out: GAIS2 out
Dennis Collander
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson
IFK GöteborgNone out
No listed absences
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: GAIS
DLWLD
Avg xG 1.58-1.79
IFK Göteborg
DWWWW
Avg xG 1.70-1.10

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.7%
2109.6%
321Prediction8.8%
4018.5%
5127.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for GAIS versus IFK Göteborg
GAIS goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	9%	5%	2%
1	10%	12%	8%	3%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:35 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

GAIS win

Fair

2.42

41% model

Listed

2.10

45% book

Draw

Fair

4.05

25% model

Listed

3.50

27% book

IFK Göteborg win

Fair

2.95

34% model

Listed

3.40

28% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.91
Listed: 1.72

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.09
Listed: 2.08

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.80
Listed: 1.62

BTTS no

Fair: 2.25
Listed: 2.22

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

GAIS2 out

Dennis CollanderOutRib Injury
Róbert Frosti ThorkelssonOutCruciate Ligament Injury

IFK GöteborgNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

GAIS

IFK Göteborg

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

GAIS

DLWLD

11Örgryte ISAway · 18 Oct 2026
01IK SiriusHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.70–1.56
30Mjällby AIFAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.34–1.20
02Djurgårdens IFAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.76–2.27
00BK HäckenHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.54–2.14

IFK Göteborg

DWWWW

22AIKAway · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.50–1.50
10Västerås SKHome · 9 Oct 2026
xG 0.92–0.89
10IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 2.38–0.79
21Halmstads BKHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.76–1.42
41Mjällby AIFAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.94–0.92

How to read the GAIS vs IFK Göteborg probabilities

GAIS vs IFK Göteborg (Allsvenskan, 25 Oct 2026): Slight lean. GAIS win 41%. Expected goals are 1.47–1.30. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

GAIS and IFK Göteborg are close on expected goals (1.47–1.30), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · GAIS win
Kick-off: Sun 25 Oct, 13:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about GAIS vs IFK Göteborg

Who is favourite for GAIS vs IFK Göteborg?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is GAIS win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 25%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for GAIS vs IFK Göteborg?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will GAIS vs IFK Göteborg go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in GAIS vs IFK Göteborg?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.