Who is favourite for GAIS vs AIK?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is AIK win at 45%. Home 29%, draw 26%, away 45%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for GAIS vs AIK?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will GAIS vs AIK go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in GAIS vs AIK?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 27 · 2627.0

GAIS vs AIK prediction

Slight lean

AIK win 45%

Mon 2 Nov, 18:00 Lisbon

Published 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

GAISvsAIK

Slight lean

AIK win45%

GAIS win: 29%
Draw: 26%
AIK win: 45%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.06–1.38
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over70%; Under30%
2.5 goals: Over44%; Under56%
3.5 goals: Over23%; Under77%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: AIK win 45%, from a -21 Elo gap (1542 vs 1563).
2Expected goals 1.06-1.38.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1542
-21
1563
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: GAIS
LLWLD
Avg xG 1.74-1.90
AIK
DLLDL
Avg xG 2.54-2.34

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.4%
20112.3%
3109.6%
412Prediction8.8%
5008.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for GAIS versus AIK
GAIS goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	12%	8%	4%
1	10%	12%	9%	4%
2	5%	7%	5%	2%
3		2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

GAIS

AIK

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

GAIS

LLWLD

24Örgryte ISAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 2.38–2.35
01IK SiriusHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.70–1.56
30Mjällby AIFAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.34–1.20
02Djurgårdens IFAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.76–2.27
00BK HäckenHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.54–2.14

AIK

DLLDL

22IFK GöteborgHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.50–1.50
56IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 2.45–2.85
12Halmstads BKAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 2.36–1.85
11Mjällby AIFHome · 16 Sept 2026
xG 3.18–1.84
14Västerås SKHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 3.23–3.67

How to read the GAIS vs AIK probabilities

GAIS vs AIK (Allsvenskan, 2 Nov 2026): Slight lean. AIK win 45%. Expected goals are 1.06–1.38. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

AIK holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.06–1.38). That shows up as AIK win at 45%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 44%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · AIK win
Kick-off: Mon 2 Nov, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about GAIS vs AIK

Who is favourite for GAIS vs AIK?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is AIK win at 45%. Home 29%, draw 26%, away 45%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for GAIS vs AIK?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will GAIS vs AIK go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in GAIS vs AIK?: BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.