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Allsvenskan · Round 25 · 2026/27

Djurgårdens IF vs Örgryte IS prediction

Strong favourite

Djurgårdens IF win 79%

· 3Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Djurgårdens IFvsÖrgryte IS
Strong favourite

Djurgårdens IF win79%

Open game
Djurgårdens IF win
79%
Draw
13%
Örgryte IS win
8%
Prediction
3–1

With the 1X2 pick · 8%

Grid peak 2–0 at 9%

Expected goals
3.00–0.91

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
75%
BTTS
57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over90%
Under10%
2.5 goals
Over75%
Under25%
3.5 goals
Over55%
Under45%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Djurgårdens IF win 79%, from a +232 Elo gap (1636 vs 1404).
  2. 2Expected goals 3.00-0.91.
  3. 3Prediction 3–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 9%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 75%.
  5. 5Aydarus Abukar listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1636

+232

1404

Allsvenskan table
Out

Djurgårdens IFNone out

No listed absences

Örgryte IS3 out

  • Aydarus Abukar
  • Jerome Tibbling Ugwo
  • Viktor Ekblom
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Djurgårdens IF

WWLWW

Avg xG 1.44-1.40

Örgryte IS

DLLLD

Avg xG 0.89-3.30

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 120Modal9.1%
  2. 2309.1%
  3. 3218.2%
  4. 431Prediction8.2%
  5. 5406.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 3–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Djurgårdens IF versus Örgryte IS
Djurgårdens IF goals012345
02%
16%6%2%
29%8%4%
39%8%4%
47%6%3%
54%4%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Djurgårdens IF win

Djurgårdens IF win: model 79%, fair 1.26, listed 1.14 (83%)

Fair

1.26

79% model

Listed

1.14

83% book

Draw

Draw: model 13%, fair 7.84, listed 8.60 (11%)

Fair

7.84

13% model

Listed

8.60

11% book

Örgryte IS win

Örgryte IS win: model 8%, fair 12.35, listed 15.50 (6%)

Fair

12.35

8% model

Listed

15.50

6% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 75%, fair 1.34, listed 1.31 (72%)

Fair
1.34
Listed
1.31

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 25%, fair 3.95, listed 3.35 (28%)

Fair
3.95
Listed
3.35

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 57%, fair 1.77, listed 1.82 (50%)

Fair
1.77
Listed
1.82

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 43%, fair 2.31, listed 1.85 (50%)

Fair
2.31
Listed
1.85

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Djurgårdens IFNone out

No listed absences.

Örgryte IS3 out

  • Aydarus AbukarOutKnee Surgery
  • Jerome Tibbling UgwoOutMuscle Injury
  • Viktor EkblomOutThigh Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Djurgårdens IF

  1. 35 Jacob Rinne · G
  2. 2 Piotr Johansson · D
  3. 4 Jacob Une Larsson · D
  4. 5 Miro Tenho · D
  5. 18 Adam Ståhl · D
  6. 8 Patric Åslund · M
  7. 13 Daniel Stensson · M
  8. 16 Bo Åsulv Hegland · M
  9. 20 Matias Siltanen · M
  10. 9 Kristian Stromland Lien · F
  11. 19 Jeppe Okkels · F

Örgryte IS

  1. 44 Hampus Gustafsson · G
  2. 3 Johan Hammar · D
  3. 5 Christoffer Styffe · D
  4. 6 Mikael Dyrestam · D
  5. 18 Adam Andersson · D
  6. 33 Sebastian Lagerlund · D
  7. 8 Benjamin Laturnus · M
  8. 14 Daniel Paulson · M
  9. 23 Owen Parker-Price · M
  10. 17 William Hofvander · F
  11. 22 Tobias Sana · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Djurgårdens IF

WWLWW
  • 20IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 16 Oct 2026

    xG 1.30–0.92

  • 10Hammarby IFAway · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 1.75–1.01

  • 12IF ElfsborgHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.40–1.68

  • 20GAISHome · 14 Sept 2026

    xG 2.27–1.76

  • 10Kalmar FFAway · 7 Sept 2026

    xG 0.48–1.65

Örgryte IS

DLLLD
  • 11GAISHome · 18 Oct 2026
  • 03BK HäckenAway · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 0.31–3.82

  • 12IK SiriusHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.18–1.16

  • 14Malmö FFAway · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 1.31–3.36

  • 11Hammarby IFHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 0.77–4.85

How to read the Djurgårdens IF vs Örgryte IS probabilities

Djurgårdens IF vs Örgryte IS (Allsvenskan, 24 Oct 2026): Strong favourite. Djurgårdens IF win 79%. Expected goals are 3.00–0.91. Prediction 3–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 9%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Djurgårdens IF is clearly ahead on expected goals (3.00–0.91). Djurgårdens IF win is 79%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 3–1 at 8%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 2–0 at 9%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 75%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Djurgårdens IF win
Kick-off
Sat 24 Oct, 16:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Djurgårdens IF vs Örgryte IS

Who is favourite for Djurgårdens IF vs Örgryte IS?
The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Djurgårdens IF win at 79%. Home 79%, draw 13%, away 8%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Djurgårdens IF vs Örgryte IS?
3–1 is the published prediction at 8%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 9%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Djurgårdens IF vs Örgryte IS go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 75% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Djurgårdens IF vs Örgryte IS?
BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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