Who is favourite for Djurgårdens IF vs Degerfors IF?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Djurgårdens IF win at 57%. Home 57%, draw 21%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Djurgårdens IF vs Degerfors IF?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Djurgårdens IF vs Degerfors IF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Djurgårdens IF vs Degerfors IF?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 27 · 2627.0

Djurgårdens IF vs Degerfors IF prediction

Clear lean

Djurgårdens IF win 57%

Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Djurgårdens IFvsDegerfors IF

Clear lean

Djurgårdens IF win57%

Djurgårdens IF win: 57%
Draw: 21%
Degerfors IF win: 22%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.94–1.11
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over81%; Under19%
2.5 goals: Over59%; Under41%
3.5 goals: Over36%; Under64%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Djurgårdens IF win 57%, from a +218 Elo gap (1636 vs 1418).
2Expected goals 1.94-1.11.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1636
+218
1418
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Djurgårdens IF
WWLWW
Avg xG 1.44-1.40
Degerfors IF
LDLLW
Avg xG 1.70-2.18

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal9.9%
221Prediction9.9%
3109.5%
4208.9%
5316.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Djurgårdens IF versus Degerfors IF
Djurgårdens IF goals	0	1	2	3
0	4%	6%	3%
1	9%	10%	6%	2%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%
3	6%	6%	4%
4	3%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Djurgårdens IF

Degerfors IF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Djurgårdens IF

WWLWW

20IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 16 Oct 2026
xG 1.30–0.92
10Hammarby IFAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.75–1.01
12IF ElfsborgHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.40–1.68
20GAISHome · 14 Sept 2026
xG 2.27–1.76
10Kalmar FFAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.48–1.65

Degerfors IF

LDLLW

12Kalmar FFHome · 19 Oct 2026
xG 1.26–3.55
11Mjällby AIFAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 0.75–2.31
01Hammarby IFHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.95–2.34
02IK SiriusAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.72–1.91
20Halmstads BKHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.83–0.80

How to read the Djurgårdens IF vs Degerfors IF probabilities

Djurgårdens IF vs Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan, 1 Nov 2026): Clear lean. Djurgårdens IF win 57%. Expected goals are 1.94–1.11. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Djurgårdens IF is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.94–1.11). Djurgårdens IF win is 57%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 59%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Djurgårdens IF win
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov, 13:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Djurgårdens IF vs Degerfors IF

Who is favourite for Djurgårdens IF vs Degerfors IF?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Djurgårdens IF win at 57%. Home 57%, draw 21%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Djurgårdens IF vs Degerfors IF?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Djurgårdens IF vs Degerfors IF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Djurgårdens IF vs Degerfors IF?: BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.