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Allsvenskan · Round 24 · 2026/27

Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF prediction

Slight lean

Degerfors IF win 41%

· Stora Valla

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Degerfors IFvsKalmar FF
Slight lean

Degerfors IF win41%

Degerfors IF win
41%
Draw
27%
Kalmar FF win
31%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.34–1.14

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
45%
BTTS
50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over71%
Under29%
2.5 goals
Over45%
Under55%
3.5 goals
Over24%
Under76%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Degerfors IF win 41%, from a -30 Elo gap (1427 vs 1457).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.34-1.14.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
  4. 4Juhani Pikkarainen listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1427

-30

1457

Allsvenskan table
Out

Degerfors IF1 out

  • Juhani Pikkarainen

Kalmar FF4 out

  • Aboubacar Keita
  • Alexander Almqvist
  • Emeka Nnamani
  • +1 more
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Degerfors IF

DLLWL

Avg xG 1.48-1.75

Kalmar FF

LLLLL

Avg xG 1.80-1.99

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal13.0%
  2. 21011.0%
  3. 3019.3%
  4. 4008.6%
  5. 521Prediction8.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Degerfors IF versus Kalmar FF
Degerfors IF goals012345
09%9%5%2%
111%13%7%3%
28%9%5%
33%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Degerfors IF win

Degerfors IF win: model 41%, fair 2.43, listed 2.99 (32%)

Fair

2.43

41% model

Listed

2.99

32% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.65, listed 3.30 (29%)

Fair

3.65

27% model

Listed

3.30

29% book

Kalmar FF win

Kalmar FF win: model 31%, fair 3.18, listed 2.42 (39%)

Fair

3.18

31% model

Listed

2.42

39% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 45%, fair 2.22, listed 2.05 (47%)

Fair
2.22
Listed
2.05

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 55%, fair 1.82, listed 1.81 (53%)

Fair
1.82
Listed
1.81

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 50%, fair 1.99, listed 1.75 (53%)

Fair
1.99
Listed
1.75

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 50%, fair 2.01, listed 1.99 (47%)

Fair
2.01
Listed
1.99

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Degerfors IF1 out

  • Juhani PikkarainenOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Kalmar FF4 out

  • Aboubacar KeitaOutUnknown
  • Alexander AlmqvistOutIllness
  • Emeka NnamaniOutUnknown
  • Kasper PaananenOutThigh Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Degerfors IF

  1. 38 Matvei Igonen · G
  2. 2 Ahmad Faqa · D
  3. 3 Nikolai Skuseth · D
  4. 6 Daniel Sundgren · D
  5. 16 Sebastian Ohlsson · D
  6. 18 Samba Diatara · D
  7. 8 Bilal Hussein · M
  8. 22 Nahom Girmai · M
  9. 23 Robin Dzabic · M
  10. 11 Dijan Vukojevic · F
  11. 17 Arman Taranis · F

Kalmar FF

  1. 1 Samuel Brolin · G
  2. 2 Victor Larsson · D
  3. 4 Jesper Lofgren · D
  4. 26 Miska Ylitolva · D
  5. 39 Lars Sætra · D
  6. 5 Melker Hallberg · M
  7. 10 Marius Söderbäck · M
  8. 21 Abdussalam Magashy · M
  9. 23 Robert Gojani · M
  10. 14 Charlie Rosenqvist · F
  11. 24 Charles Sagoe Jr. · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Degerfors IF

DLLWL
  • 11Mjällby AIFAway · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 0.75–2.31

  • 01Hammarby IFHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.95–2.34

  • 02IK SiriusAway · 14 Sept 2026

    xG 1.72–1.91

  • 20Halmstads BKHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.83–0.80

  • 02IF ElfsborgAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.16–1.40

Kalmar FF

LLLLL
  • 01Malmö FFAway · 12 Oct 2026

    xG 2.62–2.59

  • 05BK HäckenHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.02–3.24

  • 01IF ElfsborgAway · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 1.98–2.47

  • 01Djurgårdens IFHome · 7 Sept 2026

    xG 1.65–0.48

  • 01Halmstads BKAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.74–1.15

How to read the Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF probabilities

Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF (Allsvenskan, 19 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Degerfors IF win 41%. Expected goals are 1.34–1.14. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF are close on expected goals (1.34–1.14), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 45%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Degerfors IF win
Kick-off
Mon 19 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF

Who is favourite for Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Degerfors IF win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 27%, away 31%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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