Who is favourite for BK Häcken vs IFK Göteborg?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IFK Göteborg win at 53%. Home 21%, draw 26%, away 53%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for BK Häcken vs IFK Göteborg?

0–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will BK Häcken vs IFK Göteborg go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 41% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in BK Häcken vs IFK Göteborg?

BTTS is 43%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 27 · 2627.0

BK Häcken vs IFK Göteborg prediction

Slight lean

IFK Göteborg win 53%

Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

BK HäckenvsIFK Göteborg

Slight lean

IFK Göteborg win53%

BK Häcken win: 21%
Draw: 26%
IFK Göteborg win: 53%

Prediction: 0–1
Expected goals: 0.83–1.48
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 43%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over67%; Under33%
2.5 goals: Over41%; Under59%
3.5 goals: Over20%; Under80%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: IFK Göteborg win 53%, from a +21 Elo gap (1575 vs 1554).
2Expected goals 0.83-1.48.
3Prediction 0–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1575
+21
1554
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: BK Häcken
WWWDD
Avg xG 2.48-1.19
IFK Göteborg
DWWWW
Avg xG 1.70-1.10

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

101Prediction15.1%
21111.8%
30210.9%
4009.6%
5129.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for BK Häcken versus IFK Göteborg
BK Häcken goals	0	1	2	3
0	10%	15%	11%	5%
1	9%	12%	9%	4%
2	3%	5%	4%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

BK Häcken

IFK Göteborg

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

BK Häcken

WWWDD

10Malmö FFAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 1.51–2.04
30Örgryte ISHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 3.82–0.31
50Kalmar FFAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 3.24–1.02
11Mjällby AIFHome · 11 Sept 2026
xG 1.71–1.02
00GAISAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.14–1.54

IFK Göteborg

DWWWW

22AIKAway · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.50–1.50
10Västerås SKHome · 9 Oct 2026
xG 0.92–0.89
10IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 2.38–0.79
21Halmstads BKHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.76–1.42
41Mjällby AIFAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.94–0.92

How to read the BK Häcken vs IFK Göteborg probabilities

BK Häcken vs IFK Göteborg (Allsvenskan, 1 Nov 2026): Slight lean. IFK Göteborg win 53%. Expected goals are 0.83–1.48. Prediction 0–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

IFK Göteborg holds a modest expected-goals edge (0.83–1.48). That shows up as IFK Göteborg win at 53%, not a certainty.

The prediction 0–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 41%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 43%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · IFK Göteborg win
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about BK Häcken vs IFK Göteborg

Who is favourite for BK Häcken vs IFK Göteborg?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is IFK Göteborg win at 53%. Home 21%, draw 26%, away 53%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for BK Häcken vs IFK Göteborg?: 0–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will BK Häcken vs IFK Göteborg go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 41% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in BK Häcken vs IFK Göteborg?: BTTS is 43%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.