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Allsvenskan · Round 25 · 2026/27

BK Häcken vs Degerfors IF prediction

Slight lean

BK Häcken win 47%

· Nordic Wellness Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

BK HäckenvsDegerfors IF
Slight lean

BK Häcken win47%

Open gameBoth likely
BK Häcken win
47%
Draw
22%
Degerfors IF win
31%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 10%

Expected goals
1.91–1.51

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
67%
BTTS
67%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over86%
Under14%
2.5 goals
Over67%
Under33%
3.5 goals
Over45%
Under55%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: BK Häcken win 47%, from a +140 Elo gap (1567 vs 1427).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.91-1.51.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 67%.
  5. 5Ben Engdahl listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo

1567

+140

1427

Allsvenskan table
Out

BK Häcken1 out

  • Ben Engdahl

Degerfors IF1 out

  • Juhani Pikkarainen
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

BK Häcken

DWWDD

Avg xG 2.73-0.97

Degerfors IF

DLLWL

Avg xG 1.48-1.75

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal9.6%
  2. 221Prediction9.0%
  3. 3127.1%
  4. 4226.8%
  5. 5106.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for BK Häcken versus Degerfors IF
BK Häcken goals012345
03%5%4%
16%10%7%4%
26%9%7%3%
34%6%4%2%
43%2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

BK Häcken win

Disagrees

BK Häcken win: model 47%, fair 2.13, listed 1.50 (65%)

Fair

2.13

47% model

Listed

1.50

65% book

Draw

Draw: model 22%, fair 4.46, listed 4.80 (20%)

Fair

4.46

22% model

Listed

4.80

20% book

Degerfors IF win

Degerfors IF win: model 31%, fair 3.28, listed 6.75 (14%)

Fair

3.28

31% model

Listed

6.75

14% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed BK Häcken win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 67%, fair 1.50, listed 1.50 (61%)

Fair
1.50
Listed
1.50

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 33%, fair 2.99, listed 2.35 (39%)

Fair
2.99
Listed
2.35

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 67%, fair 1.50, listed 1.66 (55%)

Fair
1.50
Listed
1.66

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 33%, fair 3.00, listed 2.05 (45%)

Fair
3.00
Listed
2.05

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

BK Häcken1 out

  • Ben EngdahlOutUnknown

Degerfors IF1 out

  • Juhani PikkarainenOutCruciate Ligament Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

BK Häcken

  1. 99 Etrit Berisha · G
  2. 5 Brice Wembangomo · D
  3. 13 Harry Hilvenius · D
  4. 21 Adam Lundqvist · D
  5. 22 Filip Helander · D
  6. 6 Abdoulaye Doumbia · M
  7. 10 Mikkel Rygaard · M
  8. 11 Julius Lindberg · M
  9. 19 David Seger · M
  10. 20 Adrian Svanback · M
  11. 9 Gustav Lindgren · F

Degerfors IF

  1. 38 Matvei Igonen · G
  2. 2 Ahmad Faqa · D
  3. 3 Nikolai Skuseth · D
  4. 6 Daniel Sundgren · D
  5. 16 Sebastian Ohlsson · D
  6. 18 Samba Diatara · D
  7. 8 Bilal Hussein · M
  8. 22 Nahom Girmai · M
  9. 23 Robin Dzabic · M
  10. 11 Dijan Vukojevic · F
  11. 17 Arman Taranis · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

BK Häcken

DWWDD
  • 00Malmö FFAway · 18 Oct 2026
  • 30Örgryte ISHome · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 3.82–0.31

  • 50Kalmar FFAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 3.24–1.02

  • 11Mjällby AIFHome · 11 Sept 2026

    xG 1.71–1.02

  • 00GAISAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.14–1.54

Degerfors IF

DLLWL
  • 11Mjällby AIFAway · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 0.75–2.31

  • 01Hammarby IFHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.95–2.34

  • 02IK SiriusAway · 14 Sept 2026

    xG 1.72–1.91

  • 20Halmstads BKHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.83–0.80

  • 02IF ElfsborgAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.16–1.40

How to read the BK Häcken vs Degerfors IF probabilities

BK Häcken vs Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan, 24 Oct 2026): Slight lean. BK Häcken win 47%. Expected goals are 1.91–1.51. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

BK Häcken holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.91–1.51). That shows up as BK Häcken win at 47%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 67%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 67%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · BK Häcken win
Kick-off
Sat 24 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about BK Häcken vs Degerfors IF

Who is favourite for BK Häcken vs Degerfors IF?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is BK Häcken win at 47%. Home 47%, draw 22%, away 31%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for BK Häcken vs Degerfors IF?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will BK Häcken vs Degerfors IF go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 67% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in BK Häcken vs Degerfors IF?
BTTS is 67%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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