Who is favourite for Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Tottenham Hotspur win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 29%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 9 · 2627.0

Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace prediction

Slight lean

Tottenham Hotspur win 48%

Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Tottenham HotspurvsCrystal Palace

Slight lean

Tottenham Hotspur win48%

Tottenham Hotspur win: 48%
Draw: 29%
Crystal Palace win: 23%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.64–1.08
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over78%; Under22%
2.5 goals: Over51%; Under49%
3.5 goals: Over29%; Under71%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Tottenham Hotspur win 48%, from a -39 Elo gap (1465 vs 1504).
2Expected goals 1.64-1.08.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1465
-39
1504
Premier League table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Tottenham Hotspur
WDLDD
Avg xG 1.08-0.96
Crystal Palace
LWDLW
Avg xG 1.30-2.30

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal13.9%
221Prediction9.6%
3208.9%
4008.9%
5108.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Tottenham Hotspur versus Crystal Palace
Tottenham Hotspur goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	5%	4%
1	9%	14%	6%	2%
2	9%	10%	5%
3	5%	5%	3%
4		2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:56 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Tottenham Hotspur win

Disagrees

Fair

2.08

48% model

Listed

1.68

58% book

Draw

Fair

3.44

29% model

Listed

4.31

23% book

Crystal Palace win

Fair

4.40

23% model

Listed

5.20

19% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 9 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Tottenham Hotspur win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Tottenham Hotspur

Crystal Palace

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Tottenham Hotspur

WDLDD

31Coventry CityHome · 19 Oct 2026
xG 0.86–0.77
11Manchester UnitedAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.62–0.80
23Aston VillaHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.22–1.16
00EvertonHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.64–1.17
00Nottingham ForestAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.06–0.92

Crystal Palace

LWDLW

05Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 0.75–1.98
31Nottingham ForestHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 2.41–3.34
00Leeds UnitedAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.74–1.36
23Ipswich TownHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.62–1.67
32FulhamAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.97–3.14

How to read the Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace probabilities

Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace (Premier League, 31 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Tottenham Hotspur win 48%. Expected goals are 1.64–1.08. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Tottenham Hotspur holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.64–1.08). That shows up as Tottenham Hotspur win at 48%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 55%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Tottenham Hotspur win
Kick-off: Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace

Who is favourite for Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Tottenham Hotspur win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 29%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace?: BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.