Who is favourite for Newcastle United vs Everton?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Everton win at 35%. Home 35%, draw 30%, away 35%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Newcastle United vs Everton?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Newcastle United vs Everton go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Newcastle United vs Everton?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 9 · 2627.0

Newcastle United vs Everton prediction

Balanced

Everton win 35%

Mon 2 Nov, 20:00 Lisbon

Published 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Newcastle UnitedvsEverton

Balanced

Everton win35%

Newcastle United win: 35%
Draw: 30%
Everton win: 35%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.39–1.40
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over79%; Under21%
2.5 goals: Over53%; Under47%
3.5 goals: Over30%; Under70%

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Everton win 35%, from a +13 Elo gap (1532 vs 1519).
2Expected goals 1.39-1.40.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1532
+13
1519
Premier League table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Newcastle United
LLWLD
Avg xG 1.16-1.51
Everton
LDWDD
Avg xG 1.32-1.09

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.3%
2008.5%
3128.4%
4218.3%
5016.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Newcastle United versus Everton
Newcastle United goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	6%	6%	3%
1	6%	14%	8%	4%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:56 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Newcastle United win

Fair

2.87

35% model

Listed

2.24

44% book

Draw

Fair

3.33

30% model

Listed

3.75

26% book

Everton win

Fair

2.84

35% model

Listed

3.25

30% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 12 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Newcastle United

Everton

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Newcastle United

LLWLD

01Aston VillaHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 0.99–1.57
14Coventry CityAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 1.84–1.47
21Hull CityHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.43–1.24
14Leeds UnitedAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 0.85–1.91
22BournemouthHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.71–1.37

Everton

LDWDD

02ChelseaHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 0.43–1.47
22Hull CityAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.68–1.33
10Ipswich TownHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 2.31–1.30
00Tottenham HotspurAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.17–0.64
22Manchester UnitedHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.01–0.72

How to read the Newcastle United vs Everton probabilities

Newcastle United vs Everton (Premier League, 2 Nov 2026): Balanced. Everton win 35%. Expected goals are 1.39–1.40. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Newcastle United and Everton are close on expected goals (1.39–1.40), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Balanced · Everton win
Kick-off: Mon 2 Nov, 20:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Newcastle United vs Everton

Who is favourite for Newcastle United vs Everton?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Everton win at 35%. Home 35%, draw 30%, away 35%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Newcastle United vs Everton?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Newcastle United vs Everton go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Newcastle United vs Everton?: BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.