Who is favourite for Liverpool FC vs Arsenal?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Liverpool FC win at 36%. Home 36%, draw 30%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Liverpool FC vs Arsenal?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Liverpool FC vs Arsenal go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Liverpool FC vs Arsenal?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 9 · 2627.0

Liverpool FC vs Arsenal prediction

Balanced

Liverpool FC win 36%

Sun 1 Nov, 16:30 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Liverpool FCvsArsenal

Balanced

Liverpool FC win36%

Liverpool FC win: 36%
Draw: 30%
Arsenal win: 34%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.38–1.34
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over78%; Under22%
2.5 goals: Over51%; Under49%
3.5 goals: Over29%; Under71%

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Liverpool FC win 36%, from a -98 Elo gap (1647 vs 1745).
2Expected goals 1.38-1.34.
3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1647
-98
1745
Premier League table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Liverpool FC
WLWDW
Avg xG 1.19-0.88
Arsenal
WWLWW
Avg xG 1.81-0.97

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.5%
2008.9%
3218.4%
4128.2%
5106.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Liverpool FC versus Arsenal
Liverpool FC goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	7%	6%	3%
1	7%	15%	8%	4%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:56 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Liverpool FC win

Fair

2.81

36% model

Listed

3.25

30% book

Draw

Fair

3.29

30% model

Listed

3.85

25% book

Arsenal win

Fair

2.94

34% model

Listed

2.16

45% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 10 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Liverpool FC

Arsenal

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Liverpool FC

WLWDW

21BrentfordAway · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.64–0.88
03Manchester CityHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 0.94–1.28
10BournemouthAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.57–0.76
00FulhamHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.13–0.71
20Ipswich TownAway · 4 Sept 2026
xG 0.69–0.75

Arsenal

WWLWW

10Nottingham ForestAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 1.14–0.90
21Leeds UnitedHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 2.33–0.62
03Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.57–1.30
20SunderlandAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.97–1.64
21ChelseaHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 2.05–0.39

How to read the Liverpool FC vs Arsenal probabilities

Liverpool FC vs Arsenal (Premier League, 1 Nov 2026): Balanced. Liverpool FC win 36%. Expected goals are 1.38–1.34. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Liverpool FC and Arsenal are close on expected goals (1.38–1.34), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Balanced · Liverpool FC win
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov, 16:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Liverpool FC vs Arsenal

Who is favourite for Liverpool FC vs Arsenal?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Liverpool FC win at 36%. Home 36%, draw 30%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Liverpool FC vs Arsenal?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Liverpool FC vs Arsenal go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Liverpool FC vs Arsenal?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.