Who is favourite for Coventry City vs Sunderland?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Sunderland win at 36%. Home 33%, draw 31%, away 36%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Coventry City vs Sunderland?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Coventry City vs Sunderland go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Coventry City vs Sunderland?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 9 · 2627.0

Coventry City vs Sunderland prediction

Balanced

Sunderland win 36%

Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Coventry CityvsSunderland

Balanced

Sunderland win36%

Coventry City win: 33%
Draw: 31%
Sunderland win: 36%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.30–1.37
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over77%; Under23%
2.5 goals: Over50%; Under50%
3.5 goals: Over28%; Under72%

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Sunderland win 36%, from a -36 Elo gap (1426 vs 1462).
2Expected goals 1.30-1.37.
3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1426
-36
1462
Premier League table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Coventry City
LWWLL
Avg xG 1.13-1.73
Sunderland
LLLLD
Avg xG 1.66-2.33

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.7%
2009.3%
3128.5%
4218.0%
5017.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Coventry City versus Sunderland
Coventry City goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	7%	6%	3%
1	7%	15%	8%	4%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%
3	3%	3%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:56 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Coventry City win

Fair

3.03

33% model

Listed

2.88

34% book

Draw

Fair

3.26

31% model

Listed

3.55

28% book

Sunderland win

Fair

2.76

36% model

Listed

2.55

38% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 9 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Coventry City

Sunderland

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Coventry City

LWWLL

13Tottenham HotspurAway · 19 Oct 2026
xG 0.77–0.86
41Newcastle UnitedHome · 12 Oct 2026
xG 1.47–1.84
10Nottingham ForestAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.67–1.15
05Brighton & Hove AlbionHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.39–2.69
01Manchester CityAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.37–2.12

Sunderland

LLLLD

02BournemouthAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 0.07–4.32
02Brighton & Hove AlbionHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 0.72–1.41
35Manchester CityAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 4.15–2.72
02ArsenalHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.64–1.97
11BrentfordAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.71–1.21

How to read the Coventry City vs Sunderland probabilities

Coventry City vs Sunderland (Premier League, 31 Oct 2026): Balanced. Sunderland win 36%. Expected goals are 1.30–1.37. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Coventry City and Sunderland are close on expected goals (1.30–1.37), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 50%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Balanced · Sunderland win
Kick-off: Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Coventry City vs Sunderland

Who is favourite for Coventry City vs Sunderland?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Sunderland win at 36%. Home 33%, draw 31%, away 36%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Coventry City vs Sunderland?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Coventry City vs Sunderland go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Coventry City vs Sunderland?: BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.