Who is favourite for Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Brentford win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 29%, away 31%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Brentford vs Nottingham Forest go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?

BTTS is 60%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 9 · 2627.0

Brentford vs Nottingham Forest prediction

Slight lean

Brentford win 39%

Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

BrentfordvsNottingham Forest

Slight lean

Brentford win39%

Both likely

Brentford win: 39%
Draw: 29%
Nottingham Forest win: 31%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.53–1.35
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 60%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over80%; Under20%
2.5 goals: Over55%; Under45%
3.5 goals: Over33%; Under67%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Brentford win 39%, from a +52 Elo gap (1548 vs 1496).
2Expected goals 1.53-1.35.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Both teams to score at 60%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1548
+52
1496
Premier League table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Brentford
LDWDD
Avg xG 1.26-1.73
Nottingham Forest
LLLWD
Avg xG 1.65-1.22

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction13.9%
2218.9%
3007.9%
4127.8%
5206.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Brentford versus Nottingham Forest
Brentford goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	5%	5%	2%
1	6%	14%	8%	4%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%
3	3%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:56 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Brentford win

Fair

2.54

39% model

Listed

2.02

48% book

Draw

Fair

3.42

29% model

Listed

3.85

25% book

Nottingham Forest win

Fair

3.19

31% model

Listed

3.60

27% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 9 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Brentford

Nottingham Forest

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Brentford

LDWDD

12Liverpool FCHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 0.88–1.64
22Aston VillaAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.06–2.28
30ChelseaHome · 18 Sept 2026
xG 2.65–0.83
22BournemouthAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.50–2.18
11SunderlandHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.21–1.71

Nottingham Forest

LLLWD

01ArsenalHome · 18 Oct 2026
xG 0.90–1.14
13Crystal PalaceAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 3.34–2.41
01Coventry CityHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.15–0.67
21Aston VillaAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.92–0.82
00Tottenham HotspurHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–1.06

How to read the Brentford vs Nottingham Forest probabilities

Brentford vs Nottingham Forest (Premier League, 31 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Brentford win 39%. Expected goals are 1.53–1.35. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Brentford and Nottingham Forest are close on expected goals (1.53–1.35), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 55%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 60%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Brentford win
Kick-off: Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Brentford vs Nottingham Forest

Who is favourite for Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Brentford win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 29%, away 31%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Brentford vs Nottingham Forest go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?: BTTS is 60%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.