Who is favourite for Aston Villa vs Fulham?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Aston Villa win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 29%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Aston Villa vs Fulham?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Aston Villa vs Fulham go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Aston Villa vs Fulham?

BTTS is 60%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 9 · 2627.0

Aston Villa vs Fulham prediction

Slight lean

Aston Villa win 39%

Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Aston VillavsFulham

Slight lean

Aston Villa win39%

Both likely

Aston Villa win: 39%
Draw: 29%
Fulham win: 32%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.51–1.36
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 60%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over80%; Under20%
2.5 goals: Over55%; Under45%
3.5 goals: Over32%; Under68%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Aston Villa win 39%, from a +97 Elo gap (1594 vs 1498).
2Expected goals 1.51-1.36.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Both teams to score at 60%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1594
+97
1498
Premier League table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Aston Villa
WDWLD
Avg xG 1.55-1.15
Fulham
WLDDL
Avg xG 1.73-1.20

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction13.9%
2218.8%
3007.9%
4127.9%
5206.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Aston Villa versus Fulham
Aston Villa goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	5%	5%	2%
1	6%	14%	8%	4%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:56 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Aston Villa win

Fair

2.59

39% model

Listed

2.05

47% book

Draw

Fair

3.41

29% model

Listed

3.80

25% book

Fulham win

Fair

3.12

32% model

Listed

3.55

27% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 10 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Aston Villa

Fulham

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Aston Villa

WDWLD

10Newcastle UnitedAway · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.57–0.99
22BrentfordHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 2.28–1.06
32Tottenham HotspurAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.16–1.22
12Nottingham ForestHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.82–1.92
00Hull CityAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.93–0.57

Fulham

WLDDL

10Hull CityHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.38–0.16
12Ipswich TownAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.81–1.15
11Manchester UnitedHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.62–1.60
00Liverpool FCAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.71–1.13
23Crystal PalaceHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 3.14–1.97

How to read the Aston Villa vs Fulham probabilities

Aston Villa vs Fulham (Premier League, 31 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Aston Villa win 39%. Expected goals are 1.51–1.36. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Aston Villa and Fulham are close on expected goals (1.51–1.36), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 55%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 60%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Aston Villa win
Kick-off: Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Aston Villa vs Fulham

Who is favourite for Aston Villa vs Fulham?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Aston Villa win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 29%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Aston Villa vs Fulham?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Aston Villa vs Fulham go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Aston Villa vs Fulham?: BTTS is 60%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.