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Liga Portugal · Round 3 · 2026/27

Vitória SC vs CD Nacional Prediction

· Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Vitória SC predictions · CD Nacional predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 1/4 checks hit
VVitória SC crest

Vitória SC

1–0

Vitória SC won

NCD Nacional crest

CD Nacional

1X2

Vitória SC win

54%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Vitória SC win · 54%

Actual Vitória SC won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

VVitória SC crestVitória SCvsNCD Nacional crestCD Nacional

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Vitória SC win 54% · Open game · Both likely

Vitória SC win
54%
Draw
22%
CD Nacional win
24%
Vitória SC win %
54%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
22%
CD Nacional win %
24%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Vitória SC win 54%, from a +112 Elo gap (1509 vs 1397).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.31-1.53.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 9%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 74%.
  5. 5José Ribeiro listed out and 2 other absences.
Elo

1509 +112 1397

Vitória SC vs CD Nacional

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • José Ribeiro · Vitória SC
  • José Gomes · CD Nacional
  • Motez Nourani · CD Nacional
XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 3-4-2-1

Last 5

Vitória SCL L L L W1.27-1.45 xG

CD NacionalD W L L W1.25-1.50 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 9% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Vitória SC win · 54% · Hit

Expected goals

2.31–1.53

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Vitória SC versus CD Nacional
Vitória SC goals012345
03%3%
14%9%6%3%
26%9%7%3%
34%7%5%3%
43%4%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
74%

Under · 1 goals · Miss

BTTS %
72%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal8.9%
  2. 2-18.8%
  3. 3-16.8%
  4. 2-26.7%
  5. 1-25.8%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

VVitória SC crestVitória SC

Out

  • José Ribeiro · G · Cruciate Ligament Injury

NCD Nacional crestCD Nacional

Out

  • José Gomes · D · Unknown
  • Motez Nourani · F · Unknown

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

VVitória SC crestVitória SC4-2-3-1

  1. 48Oliwier ZychG
  2. 4Óscar RivasD
  3. 13João MendesD
  4. 23Tony StrataD
  5. 28Thiago BalieiroD
  6. 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
  7. 11Gustavo SilvaM
  8. 17Miguel NogueiraM
  9. 20SamuM
  10. 44Lohann DoucetM
  11. 24Alioune NdoyeF

NCD Nacional crestCD Nacional3-4-2-1

  1. 1Renato MarinG
  2. 6Matheus DiasD
  3. 34Léo SantosD
  4. 38Ze VitorD
  5. 7Markus JensenM
  6. 22Filipe SoaresM
  7. 28LizieroM
  8. 52Wesley GasolinaM
  9. 8Miguel BaezaF
  10. 10Daniel JúniorF
  11. 99Pablo Messias CardozoF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

VVitória SC crestVitória SCL L L L W

  • H · FC Arouca · 8 Aug 20260-12.28-0.43 xG
  • A · CD Nacional · 16 May 20260-21.33-0.94 xG
  • H · Casa Pia · 11 May 20260-10.94-0.88 xG
  • A · Sporting CP · 4 May 20261-50.61-4.57 xG
  • H · Rio Ave · 25 Apr 20262-01.17-0.44 xG

NCD Nacional crestCD NacionalD W L L W

  • A · Santa Clara · 10 Aug 20262-21.23-1.43 xG
  • H · Vitória SC · 16 May 20262-00.94-1.33 xG
  • A · Santa Clara · 11 May 20260-20.92-1.53 xG
  • H · AVS - Futebol SAD · 2 May 20261-21.83-1.64 xG
  • A · Tondela · 25 Apr 20262-01.32-1.56 xG

How to read the Vitória SC vs CD Nacional probabilities

Vitória SC vs CD Nacional (Liga Portugal, 23 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Vitória SC win 54%. Expected goals are 2.31–1.53. Modal score 1-1 (9%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–0.

Vitória SC is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.31–1.53). Vitória SC win is 54% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 1-1 carries 9%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 74%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 72%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Vitória SC win
Kick-off
Sun 23 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Vitória SC vs CD Nacional

Who is favourite for Vitória SC vs CD Nacional?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Vitória SC win at 54%. Home 54%, draw 22%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Vitória SC vs CD Nacional?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 9% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Vitória SC vs CD Nacional go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 74% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Vitória SC vs CD Nacional?

BTTS is 72%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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