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Liga Portugal · Round 3 · 2026/27

FC Porto vs FC Arouca Prediction

· Estádio do Dragão · FC Porto predictions · FC Arouca predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 3/4 checks hit
PFC Porto crest

FC Porto

2–0

FC Porto won

AFC Arouca crest

FC Arouca

1X2

FC Porto win

67%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Modal 2-0 · score hit

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted FC Porto win · 67%

Actual FC Porto won

Modal score
Hit

Predicted 2-0

Actual 2–0

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

PFC Porto crestFC PortovsAFC Arouca crestFC Arouca

Win probabilities

Clear lean

FC Porto win 67%

FC Porto win
67%
Draw
22%
FC Arouca win
10%
FC Porto win %
67%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
22%
FC Arouca win %
10%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: FC Porto win 67%, from a +291 Elo gap (1791 vs 1500).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.10-0.73.
  3. 3Modal score 2-0 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Martim Fernandes listed out and 2 other absences.
Elo

1791 +291 1500

FC Porto vs FC Arouca

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Martim Fernandes · FC Porto
  • Oskar Pietuszewski · FC Porto
XI

Confirmed

4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

FC PortoW W L W W1.83-1.10 xG

FC AroucaW W W D L1.07-1.23 xG

Modal score

2-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 13% · Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

FC Porto win · 67% · Hit

Expected goals

2.10–0.73

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for FC Porto versus FC Arouca
FC Porto goals012345
07%3%
111%11%3%
213%10%3%
39%7%2%
45%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
54%

Under · 2 goals · Miss

BTTS %
47%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 2-0ModalResult13.0%
  2. 1-010.8%
  3. 1-110.6%
  4. 2-19.5%
  5. 3-09.1%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

PFC Porto crestFC Porto

Out

  • Martim Fernandes · D · Unknown
  • Oskar Pietuszewski · F · Unknown
  • Samu Aghehowa · F · Cruciate Ligament Injury

AFC Arouca crestFC Arouca

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

PFC Porto crestFC Porto4-3-3

  1. 99Diogo CostaG
  2. 4Jakub KiwiorD
  3. 5Jan BednarekD
  4. 12Zaidu SanusiD
  5. 20Alberto CostaD
  6. 8Victor FroholdtM
  7. 10Gabri VeigaM
  8. 13Pablo RosarioM
  9. 7William GomesF
  10. 11PepêF
  11. 19André SilvaF

AFC Arouca crestFC Arouca4-2-3-1

  1. 12Ignacio de ArruabarrenaG
  2. 3Jose FontánD
  3. 15Javi SánchezD
  4. 18Orest LebedenkoD
  5. 28Tiago EsgaioD
  6. 6Espen Van EeM
  7. 7Naïs DjouahraM
  8. 8Taichi FukuiM
  9. 14Hyun-ju LeeM
  10. 19Alfonso TrezzaM
  11. 17Ivan BarberoF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

PFC Porto crestFC PortoW W L W W

  • H · FC Alverca · 9 Aug 20262-02.59-1.66 xG
  • H · Santa Clara · 16 May 20261-00.91-0.50 xG
  • A · AVS - Futebol SAD · 10 May 20261-33.19-0.88 xG
  • H · FC Alverca · 2 May 20261-00.65-0.68 xG
  • A · CF Estrela Amadora · 26 Apr 20262-11.81-1.76 xG

AFC Arouca crestFC AroucaW W W D L

  • A · Vitória SC · 8 Aug 20261-00.43-2.28 xG
  • H · Tondela · 16 May 20263-11.77-0.62 xG
  • A · Gil Vicente · 11 May 20263-11.32-0.77 xG
  • H · Santa Clara · 2 May 20262-20.96-1.61 xG
  • A · FC Alverca · 24 Apr 20261-20.86-0.85 xG

How to read the FC Porto vs FC Arouca probabilities

FC Porto vs FC Arouca (Liga Portugal, 23 Aug 2026): Clear lean — FC Porto win 67%. Expected goals are 2.10–0.73. Modal score 2-0 (13%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 2–0.

FC Porto is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.10–0.73). FC Porto win is 67% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 2-0 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 54% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 47%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · FC Porto win
Kick-off
Sun 23 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about FC Porto vs FC Arouca

Who is favourite for FC Porto vs FC Arouca?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is FC Porto win at 67%. Home 67%, draw 22%, away 10%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for FC Porto vs FC Arouca?

2-0 is the modal scoreline at 13% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will FC Porto vs FC Arouca go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in FC Porto vs FC Arouca?

BTTS is 47%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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