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Liga Portugal · Round 1 · 2026/27

CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP Prediction

· Estádio José Gomes · CF Estrela Amadora predictions · Sporting CP predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 1/4 checks hit
EACF Estrela Amadora crest

CF Estrela Amadora

2–2

Draw

SCSporting CP crest

Sporting CP

1X2

Sporting CP win

74%Miss

Verdict

Strong favourite

Modal 0-2 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Sporting CP win · 74%

Actual Draw

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 0-2

Actual 2–2

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

EACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela AmadoravsSCSporting CP crestSporting CP

Win probabilities

Strong favourite

Sporting CP win 74%

CF Estrela Amadora win
8%
Draw
19%
Sporting CP win
74%
CF Estrela Amadora win %
8%
Draw %
19%

Result

Sporting CP win %
74%

Predicted

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Sporting CP win 74%, from a -416 Elo gap (1399 vs 1815).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.66-2.32.
  3. 3Modal score 0-2 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Stefan Leković suspended and one other absence.
Elo

1399 -416 1815

CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Stefan Leković · CF Estrela Amadora
  • Maximiliano Araújo · Sporting CP
XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

CF Estrela AmadoraD D L L L1.38-1.96 xG

Sporting CPW W W D D2.58-1.00 xG

Modal score

0-2

Highest cell in the score grid · 14% · Miss

Verdict

Strong favourite

Sporting CP win · 74% · Miss

Expected goals

0.66–2.32

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for CF Estrela Amadora versus Sporting CP
CF Estrela Amadora goals012345
06%11%14%11%6%3%
12%9%9%7%4%
23%3%2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
57%

Over · 4 goals · Hit

BTTS %
45%

Yes · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 0-2Modal13.7%
  2. 0-110.6%
  3. 0-310.6%
  4. 1-29.0%
  5. 1-18.9%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

EACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela Amadora

Suspended

  • Stefan Leković · D · yellow or red card suspension

SCSporting CP crestSporting CP

Suspended

  • Maximiliano Araújo · D · red card suspension

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

EACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela Amadora4-2-3-1

  1. 24Léo LinckG
  2. 4Bernardo SchappoD
  3. 21Max ScholzeD
  4. 30Luan PatrickD
  5. 55Rafa SoaresD
  6. 10Ianis StoicaM
  7. 14Lovro ZvonarekM
  8. 39Eddy DouéM
  9. 78Santiago SerraM
  10. 99Abraham MarcusM
  11. 37Leandro AntonettiF

SCSporting CP crestSporting CP4-2-3-1

  1. 1Rui SilvaG
  2. 13Georgios VagiannidisD
  3. 25Gonçalo InácioD
  4. 50Rodrigo DiasD
  5. 72Eduardo QuaresmaD
  6. 5Sergi AltimiraM
  7. 10Geny CatamoM
  8. 17Rodrigo ZalazarM
  9. 58Flávio GonçalvesM
  10. 77Issa DoumbiaM
  11. 7Fotis IoannidisF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

EACF Estrela Amadora crestCF Estrela AmadoraD D L L L

  • A · Sporting Braga · 16 May 20262-20.71-2.38 xG
  • H · Famalicão · 11 May 20260-00.26-1.97 xG
  • A · Moreirense · 2 May 20262-32.83-1.87 xG
  • H · FC Porto · 26 Apr 20261-21.76-1.81 xG
  • A · FC Arouca · 19 Apr 20260-11.35-1.77 xG

SCSporting CP crestSporting CPW W W D D

  • H · Gil Vicente · 16 May 20263-01.61-0.64 xG
  • A · Rio Ave · 11 May 20264-11.56-0.97 xG
  • H · Vitória SC · 4 May 20265-14.57-0.61 xG
  • H · Tondela · 29 Apr 20262-21.90-1.27 xG
  • A · AVS - Futebol SAD · 26 Apr 20261-13.27-1.53 xG

How to read the CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP probabilities

CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP (Liga Portugal, 8 Aug 2026): Strong favourite — Sporting CP win 74%. Expected goals are 0.66–2.32. Modal score 0-2 (14%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 2–2.

Sporting CP is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.66–2.32). Sporting CP win is 74% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 0-2 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 45%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
8 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Sporting CP win
Kick-off
Sat 8 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP

Who is favourite for CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Sporting CP win at 74%. Home 8%, draw 19%, away 74%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP?

0-2 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in CF Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP?

BTTS is 45%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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