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La Liga · Round 1 · 2026/27

Valencia vs Real Betis Prediction

· Mestalla · Valencia predictions · Real Betis predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 1/4 checks hit
VValencia crest

Valencia

0–1

Real Betis won

RBReal Betis crest

Real Betis

1X2

Valencia win

41%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Valencia win · 41%

Actual Real Betis won

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 0–1

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

VValencia crestValenciavsRBReal Betis crestReal Betis

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Valencia win 41%

Valencia win
41%
Draw
26%
Real Betis win
33%
Valencia win %
41%

Predicted

Draw %
26%
Real Betis win %
33%

Result

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Valencia win 41%, from a -72 Elo gap (1509 vs 1581).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.40-1.22.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 12%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Alberto Mari listed out and 7 other absences.
Elo

1509 -72 1581

Valencia vs Real Betis

La Liga table
Out
  • Alberto Mari · Valencia
  • José Copete · Valencia
  • Abdessamad Ezzalzouli · Real Betis
  • Aitor Ruibal · Real Betis
XI

Confirmed

5-4-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

ValenciaW W D W L1.21-1.29 xG

Real BetisW L W D W1.56-1.61 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 12% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Valencia win · 41% · Miss

Expected goals

1.40–1.22

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Valencia versus Real Betis
Valencia goals012345
07%9%5%2%
110%12%8%3%
27%9%5%2%
33%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
49%

Under · 1 goals · Hit

BTTS %
53%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal12.4%
  2. 1-010.3%
  3. 0-1Result8.9%
  4. 2-18.7%
  5. 1-27.6%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

VValencia crestValencia

Out

  • Alberto Mari · F · Muscle Injury
  • José Copete · D · Meniscus Injury
  • Justin De Haas · D · Ankle Injury

RBReal Betis crestReal Betis

Out

  • Abdessamad Ezzalzouli · M · Knee Injury
  • Aitor Ruibal · D · Meniscus Injury
  • Diego Conde · G · Shoulder Injury
  • Giovani Lo Celso · M · Muscle Injury
  • Gonzalo Petit · F · Thigh Injury

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

VValencia crestValencia5-4-1

  1. 1Stole DimitrievskiG
  2. 4Mouctar DiakhabyD
  3. 5César TárregaD
  4. 18PepeluD
  5. 21Jesús VázquezD
  6. 24Pablo MaffeoD
  7. 2Guido RodríguezM
  8. 7Arnaut DanjumaM
  9. 8Javier GuerraM
  10. 39Ryunosuke SatoM
  11. 9Hugo DuroF

RBReal Betis crestReal Betis4-2-3-1

  1. 1Álvaro VallesG
  2. 3Diego LlorenteD
  3. 12Angel OrtizD
  4. 16Valentín GómezD
  5. 23Junior FirpoD
  6. 6Facundo BernalM
  7. 7AntonyM
  8. 8Pablo FornalsM
  9. 17Rodrigo RiquelmeM
  10. 18Nelson DeossaM
  11. 9Cucho HernándezF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

VValencia crestValenciaW W D W L

  • H · FC Barcelona · 23 May 20263-11.35-1.18 xG
  • A · Real Sociedad · 17 May 20264-31.67-1.15 xG
  • H · Rayo Vallecano · 14 May 20261-10.76-1.16 xG
  • A · Athletic Club · 10 May 20261-01.19-0.93 xG
  • H · Atlético Madrid · 2 May 20260-21.09-2.04 xG

RBReal Betis crestReal BetisW L W D W

  • H · Levante UD · 23 May 20262-11.57-2.53 xG
  • A · FC Barcelona · 17 May 20261-30.97-1.12 xG
  • H · Elche · 12 May 20262-11.80-0.40 xG
  • A · Real Sociedad · 9 May 20262-21.94-2.40 xG
  • H · Real Oviedo · 3 May 20263-01.53-1.59 xG

How to read the Valencia vs Real Betis probabilities

Valencia vs Real Betis (La Liga, 25 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Valencia win 41%. Expected goals are 1.40–1.22. Modal score 1-1 (12%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–1.

Valencia and Real Betis are close on expected goals (1.40–1.22), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 49% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Valencia win
Kick-off
Tue 25 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Valencia vs Real Betis

Who is favourite for Valencia vs Real Betis?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Valencia win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 26%, away 33%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Valencia vs Real Betis?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 12% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Valencia vs Real Betis go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Valencia vs Real Betis?

BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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